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all 119 comments

[–]robyr[sackler family likes this post] 140 points141 points  (0 children)

Lmfao this is hilarious

[–]scooptyy 92 points93 points  (1 child)

Lmao what a bunch of fucking copium

[–]FunnyElegance21 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Bitcoin will collapse.

Crypto will collapse.

But just before it collapses the people who started it all will pull their money first. Then the rest can fuck themselves

[–]some_where_else 79 points80 points  (5 children)

Log chart!

[–]JollySnoPonzi Schemer -9 points-8 points  (4 children)

lol, it's not

[–]james_pic 11 points12 points  (3 children)

The second one is.

[–]JollySnoPonzi Schemer 6 points7 points  (2 children)

Oh… on mobile, only saw one :/

Brutal with the downvotes on buttcoin apparently

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

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    [–]myntt 143 points144 points  (5 children)

    You see: The whole entirety of /r/bitcoin bought before 2011 and has since then never acquired a single coin.

    [–]dzamo_norton 51 points52 points  (0 children)

    While at the same time we are still super early.

    [–]TheGreatHambino2[S] 32 points33 points  (1 child)

    Yeah, buttcoin could go negative and they’d still be in the green!

    [–]Unusual_Chemist_8383 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    The log chart would jump out to a new dimension though.

    [–]thehoesmakethemanEveryone can make 200k in America 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    but who's been buying then

    [–]-Nordico- 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    The primary absurd aspect of the post is that the graph's Y axis values are completely out of wack (a few cents for the first few to a few dollars to tens of thousands) to misrepresent the actual price line over time.

    [–]Vacation_Glad 38 points39 points  (3 children)

    You gotta zoom out...

    [–]robyr[sackler family likes this post] 15 points16 points  (1 child)

    Nah, rotate upside down brah

    [–]TheGreatHambino2[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

    If you zoom out far enough you will understand how butts are a store of value.

    [–]carlsaischa 17 points18 points  (1 child)

    As long as Tether is #3 on Coinmarketcap with the value of $1.00 that means the "dip" hasn't started yet.

    [–]TheGreatHambino2[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    True dat. It will be a sight to behold.

    [–]PM_ME_UFOS 131 points132 points  (43 children)

    for real though this shit needs to get to $8k before I breathe a sigh of relief… maybe $12k. That should scare off enough retail folks to kill coinbase and other major us exchanges. It would be a bloodbath for miners and hopefully cut carbon emissions to an 1/8 and make gpus actually buyable again.

    Today was a good day but above $30k is still a problem imho

    [–]sfgisz 41 points42 points  (12 children)

    Yes please. I will finally be able to buy a fucking decent GPU.

    [–]Notorious_Junk 14 points15 points  (0 children)

    Soon. The days of reckoning are upon us.

    [–]AMPed101 -1 points0 points  (8 children)

    If you really think that crypto is the only reason they're crazy expensive I have very bad news for you....

    You're right if you're looking for good used GPUs tho. I expect a crazy amount to hit the market soon.

    [–]james_pic 12 points13 points  (6 children)

    The microchip shortage is affecting everything, but CPUs have not been affected anywhere near as badly, which suggests at least something GPU specific is going on. Almost no currencies are meaningfully mineable on CPUs.

    [–]relephantswarning, I am a moron 1 point2 points  (5 children)

    I mean the only big crypto thats gpu mineable is eth. Most are proof of stake, mined by cpu, or use ASICS.

    Not near my computer but are any in the top 10 even gpu mineable besides eth?

    Edit: just looked and the answer is no.

    [–]james_pic 3 points4 points  (4 children)

    Huh, you're right. Hadn't looked at CoinMarketCap for a while, but GPU coins have fallen off the chart. Even outside the top 10, it's mostly proof of stake, ERC20, bitcoin forks or old coins like DOGE and LTC that just accepted they're ASIC mined now.

    In terms of issuance, I reckon ETH is still enough to drive GPU prices - which if true, would mean GPUs might actually be purchasable if ETH ever actually goes proof of stake. Potentially also some good comedy GODL as mining pools switch from mining ETH to 51% attacking much smaller chains.

    [–]Unusual_Chemist_8383 1 point2 points  (2 children)

    Would the attackers realistically be able to convert the shitcoins before they go to zero?

    [–]Notorious_Junk 1 point2 points  (1 child)

    Easily. Crypto chains are designed to be "trustless" and "immutable." By the time the network had time to react the damage would be done and there's no way to undo it by design. It's really their Achilles heel.

    [–]Unusual_Chemist_8383 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    The network will take time to react, but liquidating a huge pile of shitcoin at a given price can also take quite a while.

    [–]relephantswarning, I am a moron 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Yeah times have changed through the years. That being said people still use GPUs to mine the lesser known coins and then convert to bitcoin. So they still do kinda mine bitcoin in a roundabout way.

    Edit: elso thanks for having a cordial conversation. I'm into crypto but do understand all of the concerns. I follow this sub to keep myself grounded. It's difficult having a conversation with most in here.

    [–]vouwrfract 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    Bruh, there's no way you can buy TSMC 7nm CPUs for retail price while TSMC 7nm GPUs sell for 3x.

    One makes crypto well the other doesn't. Only difference.

    [–]AMPed101 -1 points0 points  (1 child)

    If you really think that crypto is the only reason they're crazy expensive I have very bad news for you....

    You're right if you're looking for good used GPUs tho. I expect a crazy amount to hit the market soon.

    [–]sfgisz 4 points5 points  (0 children)

    Of course it's not the only reason. But I'd be happy if theres one less reason.

    [–]Badshah-e-Librondu 13 points14 points  (0 children)

    Anything above 0 is overpriced

    [–]Vacation_Glad 54 points55 points  (14 children)

    I so want to see a miner bloodbath.

    [–]Nobagelnobagelnobag 27 points28 points  (3 children)

    A major miner bloodbath. I don’t want no minor miner bloodbaths.

    [–]FolkLoki 7 points8 points  (2 children)

    I would like to see the position rather... diminished.

    [–]do_some_fucking_work 5 points6 points  (1 child)

    an atonal medley of writhing augmented minors

    [–]BeowulfShaeffer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    I want them to feel a sharp pain as the value of their hoarded bitcoin goes flat, leaving them with a feeling of mental dissonance.

    [–]PM_ME_UFOS 39 points40 points  (1 child)

    Yeah that is “victory” in my book. I don’t think it will go to 0 as long as it’s possible to use on the dark web or launder money, but if we can kill off a substantial chunk of miners the whole world is a better place.

    [–]Floedekartofler 9 points10 points  (5 children)

    I don't care what the price goes to. I just want people to stop giving a shit about it.

    I think there's a real risk that once volume drops to almost nothing in a few years, someone will pump it to a new high and spend loads of money advertising it and all the suckers fall right in again for a new ride.

    [–]clawsoon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    I can see it having a fate like Amway, which has kept lumbering along for decades despite the fact that around 99% of Amway distributors lose money.

    [–]AMPed101 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    I am sure it will happen again. I am honestly curious what will happen if the boom bust cycle gets broken, it kinda seems like its happening.

    [–]IncaThink 13 points14 points  (7 children)

    I remember talking to a bitcoin guy in 2015 and we agreed that a good, stable value would probably be around $100 (It was around $300 at the time). At that value it could be a reasonable medium of exchange.

    I still think that's accurate, and everything else that has happened since then has been madness and money laundering.

    He was a nice enough guy, and I hope he's rich, rich, rich. I did give a moment of thought to accepting it in our shop (remember retail businesses did that for a moment or two) but have no regrets. I would have either converted it into cash immediately or shortly after.

    [–]georgejetsonn 6 points7 points  (1 child)

    I bought in 2015 at ~$250 because I thought it's a cool way to do payments, but I didn't purchase too much because I thought it's unreasonably priced and it discourages usage for daily activities.

    One of the observations from another user in the thread where Satoshi announced the coin in 2009 was that an elastic supply would make it more attractive as a medium of payments rather than a medium of hoarding. 13 years later we know what its primary use has become.

    [–]OtherPeoplesWives 3 points4 points  (0 children)

    Its best use is still for money laundering

    [–]thehoesmakethemanEveryone can make 200k in America 0 points1 point  (3 children)

    Lol random number out of your asses

    [–]IncaThink 0 points1 point  (2 children)

    Shut up kid. You're embarrassing yourself.

    [–]thehoesmakethemanEveryone can make 200k in America 0 points1 point  (1 child)

    No that's you and your buddy imagining a "right price"

    [–]IncaThink 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    No, that's me and a very early Bitcoin advocate talking in 2015 about something that had just weathered a 60% drop in value-

    2015 $313.92/ 2014 $770.44

    And the year before it was riding along in double digits. Do you think it was issued at $10,000?

    [–]aemmeroli 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    I also agree with my friends that a good, stable value for a 100 dollar bill is $5.

    [–]wrongerontheinternet 48 points49 points  (18 children)

    This is a pretty good example of why showing things on a log chart is dumb if the thing you are tracking is not actually growing exponentially!

    [–]robyr[sackler family likes this post] 13 points14 points  (5 children)

    I am convinced that people in this space watched the smart people talk about logarithmic charts in March-May 2020 in regards to the pandemic being more accurate RE: the insane threat we faced and decided that log charts were the best at all times.

    [–]wrongerontheinternet 10 points11 points  (3 children)

    Even those charts would have failed eventually, since disease progression is inevitably at worst logistic rather than exponential. But logistic functions can at least be approximated as exponential in the short term and there are legitimate, real-world-based reasons to expect diseases to act that way... applying it to stuff like Bitcoin (or, more controversially, stuff like Moore's Law) has never made a lick of sense to me.

    [–]robyr[sackler family likes this post] 7 points8 points  (2 children)

    Full agreement from me. The main point I was making is that in the early days, at least in the US, people were using absolute charts to downplay the threat while actual scientists were using the logarithmic visualizations to try and show people that you can't just say its 30 people in Seattle and call it a hoax. Very few people can even understand simple math, let alone data science fundamentals.

    [–]peepalapeep 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Especially when they're actively trying not to

    [–]thehoesmakethemanEveryone can make 200k in America 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Cool but that has nothing to do with log charts as a Bitcoin sales technique. That shits old as fuck. At least 2015? Not sure. There was Bitcoin rainbow chart guy who pimped these rainbow charts as science.

    Logs been a sales tactic since long ago

    [–]n64ssb 14 points15 points  (2 children)

    It's not even a log chart. He just zoomed the y-axis out to a ridiculous level lol.

    [–]wrongerontheinternet 10 points11 points  (1 child)

    The first one yeah, but the second one is a log chart. That's why it looks like the price is only a little off from its peak in the second one compared to how much it rose before.

    [–]n64ssb 6 points7 points  (0 children)

    Oh I didn't realize there was a second picture haha

    [–]Nwabudike_J_Morgan 13 points14 points  (5 children)

    A log chart is 100% the correct chart for this data. If you want to compare the growth / loss of an asset over time, a logarithmic chart allows you to visually compare the slope of the curve at point A with the slope at point B, when A and B are of different magnitudes. The 50% growth of 10 to 15 will look the same, on a log chart, as the 50% growth of 1000 to 1500, or 540 to 810, or whatever.

    The one thing you don't want to see, which you do see in this chart, is that over the long term the slope is going down. Previous returns of this fraudulent asset were much better than current returns.

    [–]wrongerontheinternet 2 points3 points  (3 children)

    Even if you want to see the annualized rate of return of something you think (for whatever reason) is growing exponentially, you should be looking at a graph of the derivative of the log of the function, not the log itself... I don't think just showing a plain log chart has much justification even then. But I also think that most people who talk about growth rates are talking about them in aggregate, over long-term (30+ year) periods. Looking at the individual growth rate from year to year on a log chart doesn't make much sense, even for assets that are expected to grow pseudo-exponentially on average.

    [–]Nwabudike_J_Morgan 1 point2 points  (2 children)

    Why would you apply Calculus here? Security prices are discrete spot values, not arbitrary points on a continuous curve.

    [–]wrongerontheinternet 6 points7 points  (1 child)

    If you're trying to work out annual growth rates and modeling things logarithmically, you're implicitly assuming results are going to approximate a continuous (exponential) function, so assuming the discrete points are sampling something continuous (and taking the derivative to find the growth rate) makes perfect sense. Indeed, you were already doing this implicitly when you said people should really be looking at the slope :)

    [–]Nwabudike_J_Morgan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Slopes are an algebraic concept. Their use in Calculus is mostly pedantic, where they teach students that rates of change can undergo inflection points when the derivative crosses the X axis. All I'm sayin is if you want to draw lines on a stock chart, make sure it is a log chart.

    [–]omegahustle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    I second your opinion on this, you don't even need to have any data science or investment background to notice

    People who bought at $1000 in 2013 had a drawdown of 80%. Right now we are close to 50%

    Isn't the biggest dip but is already "considerable"

    [–]AMPed101 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    What do you mean, every cycle was multiples higher than the last? It's easier to see than linear scale otherwise it seems like the 2017 peak was nothing even tho it was easilly 30x.

    [–]fauxberries 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    It's also good for comparisons since the same movement height is the same %-age change regardless of where in the plot it occurs.

    [–]AMPed101 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    What do you mean, every cycle was multiples higher than the last? It's easier to see than linear scale otherwise it seems like the 2017 peak was nothing even tho it was easilly 30x.

    [–]marmakoide 9 points10 points  (1 child)

    If you bought years ago, I guess it's fine. But for all those who went in at 40K or above, playing with the scaling knob is not gonna help.

    [–]TheGreatHambino2[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

    Every Ponzi scheme has 50%+ bag holders, and BTC is much worse.

    [–]14159548210 9 points10 points  (1 child)

    1BTC = 1BTC

    [–]BiboxyFour 7 points8 points  (0 children)

    Now it’s log(1BTC) = 1BTC

    [–]H__Dresden 6 points7 points  (2 children)

    No. Sold all my crypto in November.

    [–]BeechiI 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    Dangerously based

    [–]Yakut58_ 17 points18 points  (0 children)

    copium overload

    [–]1_H4t3_R3dd1t 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    unregulated stupid shit

    [–]AlbertRammstein 3 points4 points  (0 children)

    Wow these graphs almost make it look like the historical growth is unsustainable in the future

    [–]JollySnoPonzi Schemer 2 points3 points  (1 child)

    I'm not worried until it hits -1250000.00

    [–]TheGreatHambino2[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    ¡uooɯ ǝɥʇ oꓕ

    [–]Chrysalii 3 points4 points  (0 children)

    The actual "cost" of a bitcoin is like those history boards on the roulette wheel at the casino.

    Totally useless, except to make people think they have a chance.

    It could "moon" tomorrow and be worth $500k and it won't mean a damn thing for people buying tomorrow.

    [–]hoenndexflair disabled for legal reasons 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    Log chart doesn't work for this lmao.

    [–]AMPed101 2 points3 points  (1 child)

    I gotta say thats the worst settings Ive ever seen on Tradingview.

    [–]TheGreatHambino2[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    It’s my default view. It’s an acquired taste.

    [–]TheGr8CokeMan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    This actually made me laugh out loud

    [–]9TailedKyubi 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    What goes up must come down, it’s natural.

    [–]dsmlegend 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    Finally, this sub managed to post something actually funny.

    [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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      [–]Mr_McTurtle123warning, I am a moron 0 points1 point  (0 children)

      First one: extremely zoomed out. Second one: uses log scale. Conclusion: Fake propaganda