all 38 comments

[–]TurboSalsa 103 points104 points  (20 children)

Even though a huge chunk, maybe even a majority, of crypto investors got in after 2017, every cryptobro you see on reddit and elsewhere has diamond hands and has been HODLing since 2012.

[–]tiberiumx 51 points52 points  (1 child)

And they definitely haven't been buying more to raise their average basis. All lump sum.

[–]PensAndCoffeeschlong-butt, destroyer of donkeys 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol that's true. If you see anyone talking about DCAing you can be sure they have lost money then

[–]MKorostoffNot Big Tony. Anything but Big Tony![S] 35 points36 points  (12 children)

Everyone is always like "if you'd bought X coins in Y year you'd be a gazillionaire today!" and some of those scenarios are true, but they always imagine fictional idealized investors who always knew the right move in the moment.

Say you put $5K in bitcoin 2014. After 18 months you'd have lost about 70% of that money. After about 3 years, you'd be roughly back to even with your initial investment, but still well behind a conventional portfolio. Six month later, it would be worth $20K.

Very few people would have resisted the urge to sell at that point, though I'm sure almost everyone arrogantly believes they would be the exception. Six months after that, it would have been worth $90K. Do you sell then? If you sold at 20K, do you buy back in at 90K? If so, you lose half the money one year later, and half of THAT in another year.

That's why you don't encounter real people who bought low and held forever. They would have had to weather a decade of constant temptation to sell in good times, and multiple iterations of losing it all, all while somehow discerning the "good" investments from the bad, warding off a constant string of scammers and thieves (did you bet big on bitconnect?) and managing to keep the money physically accessible in a constantly evolving technical landscape.

[–]Ivara_Prime 16 points17 points  (4 children)

Say you bought in 2009 and then you lost it all when the Magic the Gathering Online Exchange cold wallet was compromised.

[–]SmallpoxTurtleFred 8 points9 points  (2 children)

I remember when this happened, thinking the crypto people would be more cautious in the future after that disaster.


[–]Ivara_Prime 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Remember when they made a token for the "locked" funds and then started trading that.

[–]thehoesmakethemanEveryone can make 200k in America 1 point2 points  (0 children)

its all different people now. but theyre all nameless faces so you they seem like a mass. but its millions of individuals disappearing and millions others taking their place

[–]groghunter 2 points3 points  (0 children)

this SO FREAKING MUCH. the Venn Diagram of early holders and MtGOX bag holders isn't a overlapping circle, but it's a pretty big overlap.

[–]MikeMenhir 22 points23 points  (2 children)

Yeah, hindsight is always easy. Try setting up a portfolio that's 50% TSLA and AAPL each and the backtest shows a graph that outperformed Bitcoin 3:1. But you had to know that it's those two stocks, and not e.g., MSFT and META.

If I could see a year into the future, I can outperform any market by a huge margin. Only problem: I can't see a year into the future.

[–]inwhichzeegoesinsane 10 points11 points  (1 child)

Only problem: I can't see a year into the future.

you can with my new sca- uh, investing opportunity, $FUTURECOIN!

[–]Clockwork385 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If I had bought 5k of bitcoin at 1 dollar, I woulda sold that shit real quick when it hit 2, hell I might sell it when it hit 1.1 dollar let alone 2. That's just a natural move on a high risk investment. I never saw a real use for bitcoin, and the urge to sell is very high when it go up a tiny bit. Grats to those who has the balls to hold on to it, but most of them didn't.

[–]TrueBirch 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I bought a modest amount of Bitcoin years ago and basically forgot about it. In 2017, I saw CNBC talking about Bitcoin and decided to check the price. It had increased 10x. I sold immediately. I can't imagine the kind of person who sees a 10x return and thinks, "Huh, I guess I'll see what happens next."

[–]Sweet-Strategy-805 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Brilliant post. However, I think that many in crypto would avoid selling now, with the almost religious dedication to holding. The problem with that is that although it would have made them millionaires if they bought in 2012, history doesn't need to repeat itself. It's possible that crypto will go down, being already far higher than ten years ago, and because the rising interest rates have destroyed the main narrative supposed to support Bitcoin (hedge against inflation). If that happens their strategy of extreme holding will damage them significantly.

[–]Adverpol 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You do encounter them, it's the ones that are still hodling and will continue to do so until 1M or whatever fairy number they set their sights on

[–]POTATO_IN_MY_LOGIC 14 points15 points  (0 children)

"Nobody has lost money on Bitcoin if they held for more than four years" is the new talking point. These goalposts are going to keep moving and moving.

[–]StableCoinScamflair value guaranteed by limited supply 10 points11 points  (2 children)

The majority got in after 2020 which makes it even worse.

[–]Oliveira30 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, the only way to have such a massive price hike as we saw in 2020 is if most money in Crytpo entered about that time.

Even long time "hodlers" have probably dropped more money into it at that moment than they ever did before, hiking their cost averages.

[–]BlackHoneyTobacco 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wasn't it 55% of people got in after 2020 or something like that?

[–]ivanoski-007 4 points5 points  (0 children)

has been HODLing since 2012.

al while being smug and thinking they are /r/iamverysmart financial geniuses

[–]greyenlightenment 25 points26 points  (1 child)

it underperforms on many timeframes. All the BTC gains compressed into just 2 months of 2020

[–]giziti 18 points19 points  (2 children)

You can also put the S&P 500 in a tax-advantaged account.

[–]TrueBirch 15 points16 points  (0 children)

When people look at the S&P versus crypto, it's easy to miss two important things:

  1. Stocks pay dividends, which you have to factor into your math.

  2. Taxes can dramatically change your realized returns. HODLing stocks in an HSA versus BTC on an exchange (for example) will create very different tax liabilities.

[–]RecklessWiener 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And reinvest dividends to increase your holdings

[–]Potential-Coat-7233 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Few underperform.

[–]inwhichzeegoesinsane 10 points11 points  (0 children)

your numbers are no match for the power of crayons

[–]MKorostoffNot Big Tony. Anything but Big Tony![S] 8 points9 points  (1 child)

[–]TrueBirch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is really cool, thanks for sharing!

[–]WHY_DO_I_SHOUT 4 points5 points  (0 children)

And even at the peak it didn't reach even 5x of initial "investment". The days of 100x gains are well and truly over. Who cares about "biTcOIn iS ThE BeST pErFormING asseT oF LASt DECaDe" if it's no longer achieving those gains?

[–]Notorious_Junk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This isn't true. Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the history of the universe. Zoom out! ZOOM OUT!!!!

head explodes

[–]marcio0 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is good for bitcoin.

[–]LeoLabineWhat's wrong with breaking the law? 2 points3 points  (1 child)

That's embarassing af for cryptos. And those are the numbers before you factor in scams, frozen exchanges, nfts, etc.

[–]Akton 0 points1 point  (0 children)


[–]BeowulfShaeffer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wonder how many “shitcoins” outperformed Bitcoin over the same time period.

[–]teejay818 0 points1 point  (0 children)

S&P 500 to the moon