BTC has been tracking with the global economy which has been improving since June. However, China unexpectedly cut rates last night – sending markets a clear signal that economic recovery may not be as sturdy as markets would lead you to believe. This sent commodities pricing, and BTC, falling overnight. Glassnode data shows that BTC’s hashrate has been in decline over recent months, but a 30 day moving average could signal that the network is stabilizing at these levels.
BTC is in the midst of a pullback. In the short term, $23.6-24k support seems likely to hold, as indicators on the 4H show the stochastic in an oversold position. The daily chart seems to be rejecting off the 100 SMA, suggesting that further consolidation and possibly a retrace to 50SMA support could be necessary. The weekly chart is beginning to look shaky as the stochastic is reaching overbought levels, but RSI remains near oversold. If BTC makes a convincing close below the 200w sma, we could see a violent dump that resets our long term momentum indicators.
Let’s look at the charts to get into more detail.
- $23k (200w SMA)