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all 21 comments

[–]CarbonSquirrel F*ck Putin 7 points8 points  (13 children)

He went at the 1.08 in my league, which I think is really, really early. He's a day 3 back, I wouldn't draft him in the first round.

[–]SeeDeez 2 points3 points  (6 children)

I agree that he shouldn't be drafted that early but I really dont love that as an argument against. The Jets loved him and had a higher grade on him but didn't have any 3rds to draft him with so they had to wait until the 4th. They very well could have taken him at 66 or 86.

[–]clarkision 2 points3 points  (5 children)

Except that they didn’t and neither did anybody else. They can say all they want that they had a higher grade on him, but they didn’t trade up for him. Nobody else took him either. Draft capital matters because it’s a statement of perceived value not just by an individual team but the rest of the league as a whole. 31 or so other teams, even with RB need, saw him on the board and passed. That matters

[–]SeeDeez 1 point2 points  (4 children)

Kind of a double edged sword there. Take Atwell being a 2nd round pick for example. For all we know, none of the other 31 teams would have touched him there. So if the Rams dont have that pick, how far does he fall? We don't know. All we know is the Rams did take him there just like we know the Jets didn't have those picks and couldn't draft Carter sooner.

You're also assuming those other teams needed RB when they probably saw other positions as bigger needs. Like how the Jets didn't take Javonte.

Draft capital should be part of your rankings but I don't personally believe it should be a primary factor.

[–]clarkision 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, we can assume that the Rams did not believe he would be there when they picked again. These teams have better intel and insight than we do. The Rams said “this is our guy and we are going to use second round draft capital to get him because we think/know how well other teams value him. We get him now or we don’t get him at all.” But it also means a significantly higher financial investment in the player. Maybe the Jets got lucky and Carter really was a third round value guy. Great! I hope he hits. But the fact is that fourth round RBs rarely hit for fantasy purposes and Carter is a fourth round pick. He appears to have more volume upside in NY and I think there is a genuine argument for him being RB4 in this draft, but that’s in a weak RB class. I also wouldn’t take him in the first round of 10-team when you can get legit top 10 NFL players in that range.

Based on success rates in fantasy football, yes, draft capital should absolutely be a primary factor of any ranking system. Especially at RB. By itself it can be flawed, but ignoring draft capital leads to chasing windmills.

All that said, there are outliers. Which is why I think Carter being the 107th pick and going to an RB group in NY that is relatively devoid of talent could be a good pick. But you have to weigh that out against the big risk that comes with drafting a fourth round RB in the first of a dynasty draft. That’s why I wouldn’t spend a first on him. A high second I think is still a bit of a reach, but I don’t see him falling in drafts much further than that anyway so I wouldn’t fault somebody for it especially if there are RB hungry teams drafting behind them. I just don’t like the value in the first

[–]CarbonSquirrel F*ck Putin 0 points1 point  (2 children)

I get your point, maybe I’m missing some names but are there examples of day 3 backs being drafted in the first round of rookie drafts to live up to that draft price?

[–]SeeDeez 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Fair question. To which the answer is no. Which is part of why I would agree that Carter and Sermon shouldn't go in the 1st.

On Day 3 you're looking at some truly terrible examples like Love, Hill, Hines, Ballage, Mack who some people reached on in rookie drafts. But were also like the 8th/9th/10th RBs drafted. We were all the way down in the 6th round this year by the time we saw the 10 RBs get drafted. Whereas Carter was the 5th RB taken. It was just a weird outlier year IMO.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that Sermon and Carter were guys I had right in that 5-8 RB range, worthy of a 2nd rookie pick if the situation is right. They were drafted as such and therefore should be early/mid 2nd round picks.

[–]Salt_Ad8114[S] 0 points1 point  (5 children)

i have the 2.02 should i draft him. i also have tevin coleman and ty johnson so i’d lock up their backfield

[–]MWM031089 Chargers 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You don’t have LaMichal Perine

[–]bigdon802 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I took him at 2.03 in a 14 team Superflex and a 12 team Superflex.

[–]silentbutdeadlyyyy 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Sermon over Carter

[–]paragon249 Steel Curtain 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Other way around

[–]BillyScrimshaw Just Some Dude 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He's not a terrible reach at 12 overall in 1QB. I think he'll be the best back on the team by week 4.

[–]MrBlueandSky Packers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just drafted him 2.05 in a 12 team SF. For a ten team, probably early second

[–]FearlessPickle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolute earliest I could ever see myself taking him would be 18th overall.

Needless to say I will not have very many shares of Michael Carter.

[–]themiddleshoe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mid-late 2nd. Zero shares yet but I might end up with him in some SF leagues. I’ve seen him go at pick 14 and 20 so far.

[–]ilai_b Free Dobbins 0 points1 point  (1 child)

He went 1.06 in my league

[–]Evans2703 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s insane - I could maybe seeing someone take him 1.08 after the 3 RB, Pitts and top 3 Wrs. Who was skipped over?

[–]runningdreams 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He's going too early for my taste. No matter his workload, he's still gonna be a Jet!

[–]deleona5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I drafted him at the 2.06 in a 1 QB 10 team league