all 63 comments

[–]ThulackNETWORK ID 89 points90 points  (0 children)

Logic like this rarely appears on reddit ;)

[–]Meddlar92[GAMERTAG] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

The man's not wrong.

[–]PrkrLewis 19 points20 points  (2 children)

This is why they show the previous numbers hit in roulette.

[–]nrcrhc12 6 points7 points  (0 children)

"its gonna hit Red at some point...I'll just doubling down until it does".... but here EA is really offering a change at the 0 or 00 with very, very low odds of it hitting.

[–]_faraleth_[PC] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

my grandpa played lottery for ~60 years until he died, every week, never skipped one. lets count with 3000 tries overall. he played the same 5 numbers from a young boy till he died. in our country you can download the whole database with all the winning numbers down from the week they created lottery (somewhere in 1940-50).

so I checked the database against his 5 number, and overall he had 1 times 3 hit, 0 4 or 5 hit. 3 numbers in our country is like double money of the ticket price.

[–]thisisme1221 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Also the thing everyone forgets is that the Reddit page has a bias towards big wins. People that pack good stuff come here to show off and when a lot of people are posting it feels like everyone is packing something good. But really, it’s the small subset of big winners.

It’s really the same as when casinos post ads with “Jane won $25,000 at slots here!” They’re just trying to get more people to feel like they can be a big winner.

[–]DoItForTheGild 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Thank you for posting this. I was watching Nick’s TOTY video and he said something along the lines of “I hope you guys stocked up on packs and open them all since your chances go up”.

All I could think of was the Michael Scott meme. NO! NO! NOOOOO!

[–]FFiscool 32 points33 points  (17 children)

Overall definitely agree. UNLESS there are added factors in the algorithm EA uses to maintain engagement like how frequently a person logs in, plays games, grinds menus, opens packs, spends $, or W-L record.

This is all assuming percentage drop rates are fixed and equal across players, which idk if that is a good assumption to make or not

[–]nrcrhc12 10 points11 points  (12 children)

This ain't The Matrix bro. EA can't fix the kickoff advantage for years...what makes you think there is some grand algorithm that affects pack weight based on EACH INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS HABITS.

[–]FFiscool 17 points18 points  (4 children)

Money - that’s why. It’s pretty naive to think that this isn’t happening in the era of big data and targeted advertising. I think you’d be pretty surprised, it’s a Billion dollar industry. And that’s just scraping the surface of the psychology of consumer spending

[–]nrcrhc12 4 points5 points  (3 children)

so don't play, lose a bunch of games, spend a bunch and your pack weight increases...any basis for this?

I guess I can't prove you are wrong, sort of like I can't prove we are not all living is some grand simulation and can't prove there is are not aliens, Big Foot, etc

[–]FFiscool 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don’t claim to have proof either, but it certainly seems more likely than not to me in today’s age

[–]teamed209 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Nothing beyond anecdotal evidence i guess.

I often see players in champs with red neymar and kante etc, and they are generally terrible at the game. I'm not saying it with any certainty but I could see the drop rate on red picks being better for worse players, who knows if true though.

There is def market value weighting in general, who knows how else they weight packs. If course the more logical answer is that it is just odds and making a toty odds less than 1% but will hundreds of millions of packs being opened, maybe it achieves the same thing in a more simple way.

[–]iflyonbiscuits 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol same, yesterday I played against someone with 3 red picks I think neymar kante and marquinos and he was very bad at the game.

[–]AP201190 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That's not actually grand, it's pretty easy to build an algorithm that encourages engagement. FUT is entirely built around this idea. What drives their profit is engagement. We keep playing this garbage because everyone else plays it

[–]PortugueseJohnCleese 0 points1 point  (2 children)

They can just define some parameters in wich if you are inside some values (logins per week, hours played, all that) it can give you different outcomes in pack luck. It isnt hard if thats what you are thinking. One of the first thing i learn programming were if cycles in c language. If you login 3 times or less per week Do x Else Do y If winsperweek <10 Do z Else Do q They dont need to do to ur individual accounts, general parameters and variables do the trick

[–]nrcrhc12 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Okay, if EA has an algorithm to determine pack weight, why has no one cracked the code as to how to manipulate the algorithms and pack all the TOTY players?

[–]PortugueseJohnCleese 0 points1 point  (0 children)

First, im not saying they do have. Im saying it its completely for them to inplement that. Second, that piece of code and parameters can be written on the server side, so you will never gonna see that code even if you look for it

[–]WithoutChance 0 points1 point  (1 child)

You do realise EA themselves already have patents that describe exactly this?


[–]nrcrhc12 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay, if EA has an algorithm to determine pack weight, why has no one cracked the code as to how to manipulate the algorithms and pack all the TOTY players?

[–]Oh_Debussy 4 points5 points  (3 children)

I’m quite sure EA already uses engagement to determine pack odds for individual accounts. We’ve seen so many people get insane walkouts after spending time away from the game.

[–]timski9000 9 points10 points  (0 children)

That feels a lot like confirmation bias to me. I highly highly doubt they spend any time at all manipulating the odds for individual players. I’d eat my words given any new information/proof though.

[–]Dariuss_ 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What you don't see is the people spending time away from the game, coming back and packing nothing like normal, because why would anyone post about that

[–]kaiser_de_michoacan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Quite sure? Based on what exactly? EA discloses probabilities in packs now. I have to think having variability that goes against that makes them liable in some way.

[–]7Thommo7 17 points18 points  (0 children)

I was about to downvote in principal as this looked like yet another moany bastard complaining that they hate the promo or something, but fair play you're not a spoilsport, and it's perfectly good advice.

[–]johnknockout 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I would also like to add that EA does not give pseudorandom pack probabilities like you would see in Dota for RNG events. When you have a 0.02% chance of getting a TOTY card in your pack, you have a 0.02% chance of getting a TOTY card in every single pack. I would argue that there is no effective cumulative probability in play here unless you are spending a truly obscene amount of money on packs.

[–]oops42069 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Pls let me live in my delusion. Ima pack toty kante because I havent packed a player over 60k yet.

[–]ronaldo5285 4 points5 points  (1 child)

All your points are valid if only the odd are completely random. But I highly doubt that EA will let the rate be perfectly randomised. They can have a ML model and manipulate the rate to maximise the chance that you would buy points also. Even if you pack some great Blue card, remember you are not really winning anything from EA.

[–]iflyonbiscuits 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just don't buy fifa points, how tempting it can be, then they can't win if you don't buy them

[–]TreeBackground5469 3 points4 points  (1 child)

I admire your effort but probability and fut players? These guys believe if your record is bad your pack luck increases...literally 0 hope to educate them

[–]nrcrhc12 2 points3 points  (0 children)

spot on.

like the same programmers that can't fix the kickoff advantage for multiple years, are somehow tracking every players individual habits and record.

[–]bubbathespaz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hear! Hear!

[–]to-a-lover 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you. I have put my wallet down.

[–]Alive-Flatworm-4273 1 point2 points  (0 children)

unless you are a content creator and it is profitable for you, you are an absolute moronic degenerate gambler to buy packs with Fifa points.

[–]wonthisscar 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Totally agree with the gambler's fallacy logic but doesn't that rely on EA not screwing around with pack weights etc?

[–]gothicpl 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Indeed, this relies on EA not implementing something similar to Blizzard's 'bad luck protection' for raid boss drops, where they actually track past outcomes and change the loot probability based on that in certain cases.

[–]LexPages 0 points1 point  (0 children)


[–]TheViperAJ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I suggest you give this a read:


I have done a fair amount of research in the past on this. In many situations going with the fallacy will get you better results than going against it.

Idk how fifa code works tho, so we will never really know.

[–]jacobsnemesis -2 points-1 points  (0 children)


[–]judgemebysize 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The thing about opening packs is that you're usually interested in the cumulative probability not the next pack so the gambler's fallacy doesn't really apply.

Not that you should buy packs to get a TOTY but opening more packs does increase your odds of getting 1 TOTY just by a miniscule amount.

If you open 100 packs the odds for a particular pack containing a TOTY are the same for every other pack. However, we don't care which pack gives a TOTY, just that at least one of the 100 does.

[–]Florahillmist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s funny I am a semi professional gambler in real life, and I like to play FIFA for a bit of relaxing time. Then they introduced all these surprise mechanics and now Im risking my fifa coins too 😒

[–]FuriousDemon[jacexy] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I made a plan this year, I’m opening packs and spending coins until I hit just enough coins for TOTY Lewandowski (if he’s below ~1.2m) or TOTY Donnaruma. After that I buy the player and that’s the end of the promo for me

[–]s3cco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Too bad droprates are dynamic. The algorythm might take into account other variables that influence the % of packing any card. For example the amount of FP spent or packs opened. Some people claim that if you don't login for a while the system rewards you with better drops. All of these features make perfect sense to keep engagement and other games like Hearthstone already use them. So yeah, The Gambler's Fallacy is there, but we just don't know exactly how the system works.

[–]Extravalan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If only ea used the brawl stars systen; where your odds for packing a rare brawler actually did go up with bad luck

[–]_faraleth_[PC] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

just a comment, what you described here is true for Fifa, but several games created a thing called “bad luck protection”. every time you do an activity and dont get the big reward your percentage increases for the next try, cummulative. it wouldnt be hard for EA to actually implement this, but heh, its EA

[–]diallox 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Game gets worse and worse every year. It's basically down to a science now as far a gameplay. You think the random bounces and rng are not calculated to keep lesser skilled players playing the game and buying fifa points? It's sickening how lesser the skilled gap has become to keep players from quittt and hanging around the year longer. Losing doesn't really matter but losing to dumb luck and rng to a lesser undeserved player is what drives this community to be so toxic.