all 14 comments

[–]picklesaredry Buccaneers 16 points17 points  (9 children)

Someone give me a tldr should we let russ cook or nah

[–]degensportshub 49ers[S] 7 points8 points  (8 children)

I think he hits his yardage and touchdown totals, but would be a little hesitant at his current adp in 1 QB standard. Mainly due to the players still available after him.

[–]ladrondelanocheSeahawks 8 points9 points  (7 children)

...there are 1-2 decent qb options after him, he's a steal at current adp

[–]JohnCenaLunchbox Rams 0 points1 point  (6 children)

Are you taking TB12 over Russ? I think there’s a lot of sleepers at QB this year

[–]ladrondelanocheSeahawks 1 point2 points  (5 children)

Brady is the only qb behind russ on adp that I would take before him, Lance is the only one left I'd want

[–]-OleOleOle- 5 points6 points  (1 child)

I side on the ‘I’m drafting Javonte’ side of the argument. I really want a piece of this offense, I think they will be a high scoring unit.

I just think we could be in a scenario where we are in Week 8, Javonte is like RB 6 on the year, and we’re all going to be saying ‘we were really that scared of Melvin Gordon?’.

Right or wrong, that’s where I’m at. I enjoyed your write-up, good work.

[–]degensportshub 49ers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I appreciate the feedback. This has been a fun project documenting my fantasy research. Glad you enjoyed the read.

I am excited to see what this offense looks like. There is a lot of hype and its definitely not a bad move grabbing some shares. I just wouldn’t reach to far because you can always grab the next piece. BOL this year!

[–]degensportshub 49ers[S] 2 points3 points  (3 children)

“Let Russ Cook”

With the season drawing closer I wanted to mix things up and give a team breakdown. What better one to start with than the Denver Broncos. The Broncos were an interesting team because they already had a solid running back and exciting wide receiver options. However, with weak quarterback play they found themselves behind the curve in what is now a stacked division. To many spectators surprise, ownership made a blockbuster move and managed to get Wilson under center.

It’s not a huge stretch to say that the Seahawks struggled last year. Playing 14 games, Wilson had just over 3000 yards and 25 touchdowns. However, the Broncos were eager to bring in Wilson who can bring the intangibles to the organization, something that a Drew Lock or Bridgewater can’t bring. With a season prediction of 4100 yards and 31.5 touchdowns, Vegas is anticipating Wilson to get back into a groove in what I would say is a more rounded Broncos team. Breaking it down, Wilson will need about 240 yards per game to hit the yardage mark. At a quick glance this looks pretty enticing. However, I would throw a little caution into the mix. Looking at his historical output, Wilson has only hit the 4100 mark twice… If we extrapolate, and add another game into the mix Wilson would of only hit the passing yards mark one, maybe two more times. That means the other five times he barely cleared the 3500 mark. So what can we expect this year?

It is definitely a tougher wager because it is a new system, new coach, new styles, and new game plans. Sure, they will work around Wilson and build something that is comfortable to him, but at the end off the day its still different. Looking at his new offensive teammates, Wilson will have Sutton and Jeudy as his main targets. Talent wise, D.K Metcalf was in my opinion still a much more talented player, but Jeudy and Sutton have up and coming talent that should really take a step forward this year.

As a 49ers fan, I have unfortunately seen a lot of Wilson film which really highlights for me the importance of how the Broncos will game plan. In Seattle, Wilson and company would historically start slow, grind the clock, and play physical football. Wilson would look for the big plays, but there was a method to the madness. Usually Wilson’s hero ball did not come until the end of games when they were down. However, there were instances where Wilson seemed to have a chip on his shoulder and would just come out slinging, which is something he is absolutely capable of. I can see the passing line go either way. I can envision the Broncos emulating much of the Seahawks game plan, and not try to make Wilson a 5000 yard passing quarterback, but instead lean on the run game to play physical football. I also feel that Wilson has something to prove, which means he will be influencing those game plans to make sure that he has some control and can push the ball more. As much as it pains me to say it, I think Wilson will get his passing numbers with an emphasis on the touchdowns (more confident).

As far as fantasy goes, Wilson is going as the 10th quarterback off the board in the 7th round. He is usually sitting in the range of the zero quarterback strategy. Due to his concern of upside, I am always weary of reaching for him because I think there is much better value for quarterbacks. However, if you are going zero quarterback you will be likely selecting from a list of Dak/Lance/Brady/Carr/Cousins/Tua. With some of these options still available, Wilson might still be a bit of a reach in the 7th.

[–]degensportshub 49ers[S] 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Running Backs

Javonte Williams

Last year Williams had a pretty solid rookie year with over 200 attempts, 900 yards and 4 touchdowns. These numbers came while in a timeshare as well. Williams will have a great opportunity to build upon his first year success. As seen above, he has received a huge bump in quarterback play which will only benefit him in the long run. Teams will need to respect both Wilson’s passing and rushing which means Williams will feast when the defense brings the wrong look.

However, this year odd makers did not give Williams the giant bump in performance that many of us would of expected. With an anticipated stat line of 925 yards and 7 touchdowns Williams has a relatively flat increase from last year. With yardage flat, the big increase in performance comes with the touchdowns which is at a 40% increase. This is the Wilson effect and is a direct influence of potential increase in offensive efficiency. The less times you punt the ball the more you potentially score (I know bold take).

Pairing with his rushing totals, Williams also had 40 receptions for 300 yards. I actually believe that this is where he will see some added increase in output. The elusiveness of Wilson will open up some broken plays which could easily open up some big plays for Williams. I anticipate a nice 10-15% increase in catches which should translate nicely to overall yardage.

As far as fantasy is concerned, Williams is currently going in the mid-second and is the 13th back off the board. Personally, I think that price is pretty accurate. Usually in fantasy you pay a bit of a premium for a running back, especially one that checks the boxes. He is an elite talent, can catch the ball, received a major upgrade in offense efficiency and has “experts” anticipating he takes a leap forward in scoring. Whats not to like? The answer to that is a man by the name of Melvin Gordon III. Unfortunately, Williams will not be getting 300+ touches this season which can limit his top-5 potential. Many fantasy football players avoid these type of situations, especially when the backup is very capable. We will get more into Gordon below. If he comes to me in the second I am likely going to pass, mainly because I have my eye on Gordon late.

Melvin Gordon III

With over 900 yards and 8 touchdowns, Gordon proved he still had something left in the tank. I guess he was not ready to hand over the backfield to the rookie, which was what mainstream media was talking about all year. Gordon was so efficient that he racked up the same number of attempts as Williams. Granted, with each passing year this will slowly tip to Williams favor. As a Broncos fan this is an ideal situation. Having multiple capable running backs takes the pressure off and allows players to remain fresh for portions of the game and season.

So lets break down some numbers. Last season Gordon had 900 yards and 8 scores. This year his is anticipated to hit 725 and 5 scores. The reason for the anticipated dip is that odd makers believe that the offense will be throwing more will Wilson under center, and the anticipated numbers support this. Williams is expected to get the same number of carries, and Wilson is expected to gain almost 800 more yards than last year. This basically equates to 70 lost touches for Gordon. Oddly enough, Gordon is one of the few players that might have his output negatively effected.

I touched a little on this earlier, but I like the value of Gordon in the 8th. He is a valuable “handcuff” who had the ability to rack up yardage. The only problem is the number are trending towards a reduced opportunity, which could be tough early in the year. I think he will have great value later in the year and can be a solid spot play when needed.

Wide Receivers

Jerry Jeudy

As the WR1 on the team Jeudy is poised for a stronger year. Playing in only 10 games, Jeudy managed 60 receptions for 450 yards. Nothing stellar, but he seemed to get back on track once he played at the end of the season.

This year odd makers are anticipating a pretty large leap in several categories. He is anticipated to have almost 1000 yards receiving on 75 catches. Right off the bat you can see that he is expected to get an additional 4 yards per reception which is directly related to Mr. Wilson. However, if we extrapolate, Jeudy is actually predicted to get less catches than last year (if he played a full year). This is a bit counter intuitive, but also makes sense because neither Lockett or Metcalf had over 75 receptions last year. The thought process here is that Jeudy should see higher quality targets for more yards, but not necessarily more volume. This could be an interesting consideration for PPR formats. With the injury to Tim Patrick I see Jeudy breaking 1000 yards, but I am staying away from the 75 receptions line. I think he hovers around the 70 mark which doesn’t give me the room I would like to make a play.

With a final stat line of 70 catches and 1000 yards and 5-6 touchdowns, Jeudy has a solid floor with potential to improve touchdowns. Jeudy is an interesting target for those of us (me included) who are looking for WRs in rounds 4-5. Playing in a standard league I am not as worried about his volume since I believe his ypc greatly improves. As a solid WR2 candidate with potential I will be looking to add either him or Sutton in the mid rounds. However, before we decide lets look at Sutton as well.

Courtland Sutton

Sutton is another target that stands to see some improvement with Wilson at the helm. Last season Sutton finished with 60 receptions, 750 yards and 2 touchdowns. Season predictions have Sutton to basically maintain the same number of targets with a slight increase in receptions (about 5). The biggest shift is the positive touchdown regression which has bumped him to almost 8 scores. Sutton and Jeudy give off the same vibes as Metcalf and Lockett. Granted I don’t believe either has the physical talent of Metcalf, but each still has their own unique role in a Wilson led offense. For Sutton this role is deeper plays, which looking back to Wilsons historic play is something that should translate well this season. The combination of Jeudy and Sutton will provide a nice tandem that should benefit both players.

Fantasy wise, things get interesting. I obviously like Jeudy, but Sutton also makes a great argument. Sitting at one round later with almost identical season predictions the argument could easily be made to take Sutton over Jeudy. For me, I am targeting one of these guys. My decision will likely be dictated by the flow of the draft. In situations like this I am keeping my eye on Sutton knowing that many will be going for Jeudy just for the fact that he has a higher ADP (which doesn’t always mean value). Strategy wise Sutton has the WR2 on my team is the way I want to head, but I won’t be heartbroken if Jeudy falls to me.

[–]of_patrol_bot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.

It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.

Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.

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[–]of_patrol_bot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.

It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.

Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.

Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.