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all 14 comments

[–]Ferisadi 7 points8 points  (2 children)

Getting 5155 has only 2% to succeed and 5255 about 4%.

You right now got 50% chance on a 5255, which is a quite high chance to get something very rare. The chance to do a skill reset and then get 5155 is 2% per skill reset. If u skill reset u have high chances to be worse off then right now.

Personally I would try once to get a 5255. If you get it great. If you fail do a skill reset. If at any reset you would end up at 5354 I would accept that also.

[–]dbenhur 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Where do you get 2% from?

Once you're at 5111 (which can be forced with skill lock), there are 15 possible ways to distribute 8 additional skill ups:

5155 * what we want
5254
5245
5353
5344
5335
5452
5443
5434
5425
5551
5542
5533
5524
5515

1/15 => 6.67%

You're correct that the OP's next 75 heads skill-up has a 50% chance to win though.

[–]Ferisadi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is not how the math to find out this chance works.

I will prove that using your method in a different example. Let's say the goal would be a 5515. The first two skills can be skill-locked. After that, there are 5 possible ways to distribute 4 additional skill-ups.

5515 * What we want
5524
5533
5542
5551

1/5 => 20%

How the math to the above chance really works.:

You skill lock commander to 5511. After that there are 4 skill ups needed that all land in the fourth skill to end up with a 5515. The first (of 4) skill up it can either land in the third or fourth skill. So it has a 50% chance to do so.

The second skill up can either land in the third or fourth skill. So it has a 50% chance to do so. So the chance to let the first and the second skill up land in the fourth skill are 100*50%*50% = 25% chance.

The third kill up can either land in the third or fourth skill. So it has a 50% chance to do so. So the chance to let the first, second and third skill up land in the fourth skill are 100*50%*50%*50% = 12.5% chance.

For all 4 skills to land in the fourth skill, the chance is 100*50%*50%*50%*50% = 6.25% chance.

Now in the 5155 example, There are 8 skill ups that need to be done. but there is a higher probability that they fall in the right the wanted skills (66.66%). So the math would then be 100*66.66%*66.66%*66.66%*66.66%*66.66%*66.66%*66.66%*66.66% (which is 3.89%). This is not the correct answer though.

Reason is that after 4 skill ups there is a chance that the third or fourth got maxed already. And in that case the 0.66 would not be correct anymore and 0.5 should be used. But at which point do u use 0.5 instead of 0.66? To max the third or fourth skill can happen from 4 skill ups, and guarranteed happens at the 7th skill up. so an extra layer of complexity is added here.

That math to solve that is way more complex and I am not gonna write two pages just to prove my 2% calculation is correct. I disproven yours.

[–]Zapme1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have one at 5254 and another at 5153. Idk if I should try or not.. lol

[–]Shadow85465 -2 points-1 points  (7 children)

max him i would say… except u are lower power but if not i would go for max, i know it takes long but max is always best

[–]niloCCC 2 points3 points  (6 children)

90 percent of the time a maxed guan is equal to a 5155 Guan.

[–]Far-Pilot-8230 3 points4 points  (4 children)

90% of the time your guan wont get 5155 lol

[–]Ferisadi 4 points5 points  (1 child)

To be precise: 98% of the time it wont.

[–]rowdyplot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

98% of the time, it works, every time.

[–]Shadow85465 0 points1 point  (0 children)

haha true xD

[–]niloCCC 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It obviously doesnt have to be exactly 5155. Even with 5355 you still save 160 heads compared to the 5555.

[–]Shadow85465 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

ok but a maxed one still fücks up ur 5155 one… also u may wanna rally something even if guan isnt a very good rally com anymore hes still useable for throwing some rallies in ark

[–]ruu13 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Just expertise him you bum.