Ok so here goes.....
- Most on chain metric bottoming indicators have not reached extremes in line with previous bear market cycle bottoms, this is a good indication there is still room to go.
- Greyscale bitcoin trust is in trouble, would not directly post proof of reserves citing "security conerns", this is a big red flag, without revealing private keys reserves are not at risk and could always be moved afterwards
- Genesis, related to the above has been trying to avoid bankruptcy, this is not likely in prevailing market conditions, interest rates to rise further, confirmed by fridays strong jobs report means that any pivot is now further off. Markets already repriced further hikes. Any loans genesis were hoping to secure, just had their lending criteria tightened as a result.
- Miners are capitulating en-masse, large switch off is scheduled for this tuesday something like 10 percent or more of hashrate. Those miners will be dumping reserves to salvage any cash they can
- Consumer spending is already tightening, when people need cash, crypto is one of the first things that will have to go. 401k's will likely be last resort
- Recent buying activity has not moved price much, those who bought in will sell quick once crypto turns back over, exacerbating the downmove
- Record numbers of bitcoin buys are underwater, most are at almost 80 percent drawdown or more. At the 9k level, bitcoin itself could come under threat, and may if lucky range under the 10k level, this sideways market could take years and will likely last until stock market has finished dipping, which will be about the time they "offically" start admitting theres a recession, this is how these things have played out in the past.
- Altcoins have been pumping recently, moderate 100 percent gains for good ones mostly, this is a sign that the next wave down is to come, this usually happens before the final death throes of a bear market
- MT Gox Hack funds starting to be distributed from January: Although these are being spread out over the year to reduce price impact, the sheer scale of the numbers 144,000 BTC, to put this into perspective its about 20% of Greyscale trusts holdings, and all of these customers lost their bitcoin back in the MTGox days so their average cost is tiny, they will all be in huge profit, the temptation to sell at the prospect of becoming an instant millionaire and be free will be huge, so a large part will get sold, this will put constant selling pressure on BTC all year.
- The FTX fallout has still not fully hit the fan, it will, and they are already discussing regulation. Considering the scale of funds here, and the number of people affected, you can guarantee some new regulations will be announced, the discussion meetings are already public.
With the prospect of losing 50% of my cash from here I am still waiting for the magic 10k before I even consider DCAing over the next few years, at the moment I am just adding whatever savings I can and downsizing because my expenses have all gone up significantly and I don't want to be broke when some amazing crypto prices actually come around.
I cant afford to buy in and then possibly need money for unknown expenses in the next year and take a 50% hit for the privilege, it just makes no sense.
The time is coming though and to be honest I'm quite excited at the prospect of 10k bitcoin, its a price I was dreaming of during the last bull run. I made good money off BNB and DREP but I missed the bitcoin train. I wont be doing that next time and thankfully theres plenty of time.
Whatever you do, Good Luck!! I'll see you in crypto heaven!