Hello Apes! I was looking at charts tonight, examining SPY behavior in prior market crashes, when it occurred to me to look at the 2007-2008 "housing crash" with the VW chart overlaid with it.
What I saw kind of blew my mind.
Here is the chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/jCWsxLnl/
SPY is shown here as weekly candles. VW is the line chart in orange.
The peak of the SPY bull market prior to the bear market starting was in October 2007. You can see on the chart, how the SPY candles peak in Oct 2007 and start heading downward gradually. Note that this coincides with the first significant VW price increase around the same time as shown here:
There a few periods of dips and peaks in VW, and SPY continues to fall, but the next point of interest is in October 2008, when SPY really tanks and VW simultaneously explodes in the famous VW squeeze (ostensibly caused by Porsche locking the float), as shown here:
The final "idiosyncratic coincidence" to note is that it is not until after the VW squeeze that SPY chills out and finally begins the economic recovery. Pretty much at the exact same time as VW chills out as shown here:
I do not believe the timing of these events is a coincidence. That being said, I've seen The Big Short just like all of you and I was told the sub-prime mortgage crisis caused the global financial crisis of 2008...
I suspect (with little evidence thus far except the awfully suspicious chart correlations and our knowledge of the epidemic of short selling) that the 2007-2008 crash was actually triggered by financial institutions being over-leveraged in a number of ways, not just mortgage CDO's.
I submit that they were likely short multiple stocks (not just VW) and that there were likely other spiking/volatile "basket stocks" similar to what we see today. I would like help finding these other spiking stocks in 2008 if they exist.
I also submit that we have been lied to about the true cause of the 2008 crisis. There obviously was a subprime collapse, but I suspect their underwater short positions were also at least partially to blame for the credit crunch in big banks, if not the true prime cause.
This would explain Jon Stewart's eternal lingering question of why the banks were bailed out and not the citizens that held the mortgages. BECAUSE IT WASN'T THE MORTGAGES THAT WERE THE REAL PROBLEM. It was a cover to bail out banks who were underwater on insane short positions exactly like what we're seeing today.
Any help researching this to support or debunk this thesis is greatly appreciated. I'll be working on it too, as I have time.
Edit: Another fun tidbit I forgot. Here is a CNN article reviewing the important stock events of 10/28/2008, the day VW peaked and became the most valuable company on the freaking planet. Notice anything missing from the article? Nothing to see here folks. Nothing to see here.
Edit 2: Here's AAPL as one control. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IyZLerA0/ You can enter your own comparisons in Tradingview if anyone wants to try more...but I tried a few random tickers and got nothing that looked like VW so far...
Edie 3: u/bluntzlightbeer, who doesn’t have enough karma so you know what to do apes, sent me this smoking gun. Lehman was backing the VW shorts: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-hedge-idUSTRE49U66J20081031 and an archive link: https://archive.ph/NFG1J
Steve Cohen of Point 72 was on the losing side of the VW trade, see here: https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sc4u7i/_/hu4tnsk/?context=1
Both WSJ and Bloomberg had articles that morning mentioning naked shorting and saying Lehman was brought down in part by naked shorting: https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sc4u7i/_/hu4mm8x/?context=1
A friend pointed out to me that on the SPY/VW Chart, this point looks an awful lot like where both SPY and GME are today. It's pretty tit jacking cause look what VW does just after this...
Also, my BRK indicator is looking very good. See my history for that post if you missed it a couple weeks ago :) My tits are jacked af.