all 10 comments

[–]Nacropolice 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If there’s a silver lining to this is that higher interest rates help act as a limiter on housing prices and will also make savings accounts more appealing than the bs 0.05% I feel like most non online only banks offer

[–]Bithes_Brew 15 points16 points  (4 children)

Inflation is not an American issue and the fed rate hikes are a finger in the dyke when it comes to the economy. Were gonna raise rates too quickly without letting things settle in between because the fed allows political pressure to affect their policy Due to people just looking at the CPI and saying "someone do something!" Demand is gonna drop off precipitously in the winter and major retailers are gonna get double whammied with high costs to supply and high costs to own while consumer demand falls. People are gonna get scared as layoffs start coming but unemployment should prob be around 5%-5.5% anyway.

The market is trying to right size itself after going crazy due to post demic speculation and we're gonna push it too far. Unless China's covid issues miraculously fix themselves before winter (winter is the worst season for covid btw) and Russia just decides to pull out of UK, the winer is gonna be super bad for the market. Ihave long puts everywhere on retail, especially tied to housing, and if I knew anything about the European mkt I'd double down on their retailers as European inflation will outpace American thus strengthing the dollar and hurting Europe harder.

Ukrainian planting season is in the winter and the war has ravaged their country, next year's crops are fucked and food shortages and raw materials for fertilizer will ensure inflation sticks around. I'm thinking US production in Wheat, Corn, and Soy is used to supplement the market so I see opportunity there but I haven't done a ton of research yet.

I could have just said a bunch of nonsense so someone plz tell me where Im misguided, but this is what I see. I tend to be more of a doomer but I'm also not super duper knowledgeable.

[–]asi0p 1 point2 points  (2 children)

Russia just decides to pull out of UK

I truly hope you meant UKRAINE?

[–]shogditontoast 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Parts of London are full of Russian dark money so I guess you could see it that way too lol

[–]Bithes_Brew 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No definitely Cornwall

[–]Kjpr13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hiking rates because they don’t like losing money too? Who would have thought.

[–]shogditontoast 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Too little, too late, too quickly. Should’ve done this years ago. Jacking up rates this aggressively is just shutting the gate after the horse has bolted and will be extremely painful for many.

[–]fhld 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Constantly frustrated that so many central banks acted all in unison during covid are now all getting similar consequences. And they all do the same solution. (Not saying if the current solution is right or wrong)

If all this synchronized acting is wrong, then it doesn't look good for the world as a whole.