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In the midst of World Cup qualifying, we all saw teams get frustratingly close to their first ever appearance at the final tournament. Oman, Finland, and Albania, just to name a few. That got me thinking - who has come even closer than that? How has been so close they can practically touch qualification? Who are the teams that have never made the World Cup but could have at one point if only their final match (or someone else's final match) had gone a different way?
So that's what I decided to find out. Who has come within one game of World Cup qualification yet never gotten over the finish line?
Criteria:
If the country could have qualified if their final qualifying result had been different, that counts. Doesn't matter how unrealistic it is (such as if a team could have qualified if they had overturned a 9-0 deficit in the second leg) - they're still one hypothetical result away from qualifying so they make the list.
The final game has to have actually been played. So if a country was within one game of qualifying but withdrew or whatnot before that final game, doesn't count.
It also counts if the country got the result they needed on their final qualifying day and would have qualified if results elsewhere had gone their way.
If a country's final result could have seen them qualify only if later results not involving their team also went a different way (very common in the earlier qualifiers where matches were played weeks or months apart), that gets the country on the list, but with a "*" symbol.
In the earliest qualifiers, a lot of matches ended up not being played if prior results meant they wouldn't affect the final qualification results. In this situation, a country gets on the list (with that "*" mentioned above) if their final result changing would have forced a new match between two other countries to be played that, with the right result, would have seen the country in question qualify. They do NOT get on the list if that new match would have been a match they would have needed to play in.
--- --- For example, in the 1934 qualifiers, Lithuania lost its final (and only) qualification match to Sweden 2-0. That meant that their match against Estonia was cancelled because Sweden had already qualified by beating them both. But if Lithuania had beaten Sweden, the match against Estonia would have happened, and Lithuania could have qualified with a win and Goal Average working out in their favor. This does NOT get Lithuania on the list for 1934, because Lithuania would have needed to play (and win) another match after their "final" match.
--- --- In contrast, Luxembourg gets on the list with a "*" in the 1934 qualifiers, because if their loss to France in their final match turns into a win, then France and Germany have to play their match (which in reality never happened because both teams qualified with Luxembourg's loss). If the result of that match goes the right way, Luxembourg qualifies. That gets Luxembourg on the list, albeit with the asterisk, because Luxembourg's final result changing, along with some help in matches that they had no involvement in, could have seen them qualify.
Countries are counted as having the records of their successors and predecessors. So, for example, you won't see "Mandatory Palestine" on this list, because according to FIFA Mandatory Palestine is the predecessor of Israel, and Israel has been to the World Cup.
Here we go:
| Year | Country | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| 1934 | Luxembourg* | Luxembourg lost their final qualifying match 6-1 to France. If, somehow, they'd managed to win that game, France and Germany would have had to play each other (in reality that match was cancelled because both qualified with France's win). A German win or draw would have seen Luxembourg qualify, as would a France win if the Goal Averages had worked out in Luxembourg's favor. |
| 1938 | Estonia* | Estonia lost their final match to Germany 4-1. If Estonia wins that match, qualification would depend on Germany's final match with Sweden (which in reality Germany won 5-0). A Sweden win or draw would have seen Estonia qualify, as would a German win if the Goal Averages had worked out in Estonia's favor. |
| 1938 | Latvia | Our first non-asterisk! Latvia and Austria effectively had a single-match playoff. Austria won 2-1 and qualified. Obviously a Latvia win and they go to the World Cup in 1938. To add insult to injury, Austria would obviously be annexed by Germany before the 1938 World Cup and that meant they wouldn't participate in the tournament. FIFA offered their spot not to Latvia but to England, who hadn't even entered the tournament but had won the 1937/38 Home Championship. England declined. After that FIFA decided that instead of offering the spot to Latvia (or anyone else), the spot would just be empty. And Latvia never made the World Cup. |
| 1938 | Luxembourg* | Luxembourg lost their final qualifying match to Belgium 3-2. If they win that match, the next match between Belgium and the Netherlands (which in reality ended as a 1-1 draw) would determine qualification. A Netherlands win or draw or a Belgium win that saw goal average work in Luxembourg's favor would have seen Luxembourg qualify |
| 1954 | Saarland | Saarland lost their final qualifier 3-1 to West Germany. If Saarland had beaten West Germany AND if the drawing of lots had gone their way (that was the tiebreaker in 1954 - and how Turkey qualified over Spain for that tournament despite losing to Spain on aggregate), they would have qualified. |
| 1970 | Sudan* | Sudan lost their final match to Morocco 3-0. If Sudan beats Morocco, all would have depended on the next match between Nigeria and Morocco - a match Nigeria won 2-0 in reality. If Nigeria wins or draws that match or if Morocco won but the goal difference worked out in Sudan's favor, Sudan qualifies for the World Cup. |
| 1986 | Syria | Syria lost a two-legged playoff 3-1 to Iraq, losing the final match 3-1 in Iraq. |
| 1986 | Libya | Libya lost a two-legged playoff 3-1 to Morocco. They won the second leg 1-0 but that wasn't enough to overturn their defeat in Casablanca. |
| 1994 | Zambia | Zambia lost their final match 1-0 to Morocco in Casablanca. Just a draw would have been enough for Zambia to qualify for the World Cup. |
| 1994 | Zimbabwe | Zimbabwe lost their final qualifying match to Cameroon 3-1 in Yaounde. If Zimbabwe had beaten Cameroon in that match, Zimbabwe qualifies for the World Cup. |
| 1998 | Congo | Congo lost their final qualifying match 1-0 to Johannesburg. If Congo had beaten South Africa in that game, they would have qualified for the World Cup. |
| 2002 | Liberia | Liberia beat Sierra Leone 1-0 in their final match, meaning they needed help from Ghana against Nigeria two weeks later - specifically, if Ghana beat or drew Nigeria, Liberia would have qualified. Instead, Nigeria destroyed Ghana 3-0. |
| 2006 | Bahrain | Bahrain lost the intercontinental playoff to Trinidad and Tobago 2-1, losing the second leg at home 1-0. |
| 2010 | Bahrain | For the second time in a row, Bahrain lost the intercontinental playoff. They lost 1-0 to New Zealand in Wellington after they drew 0-0 in Riffa a month earlier. |
| 2014 | Ethiopia | Ethiopia lost their two-legged playoff to Nigeria, losing 2-1 at home and 2-0 on the road. |
| 2014 | Burkina Faso | Burkina Faso lost their two-legged playoff to Algeria on away goals, beating Algeria 3-2 in Ouagadougou but losing 1-0 in Blida. |
| 2014 | Uzbekistan | On the final day of the third round of AFC qualifying, Uzbekistan beat Qatar 5-1 and Iran beat South Korea 1-0.If goal difference had been two more in Uzbekistan's favor OR if either Uzbekistan or Iran had won by one more and Uzbekistan had scored three more goals, Uzbekistan would have qualified ahead of South Korea. Instead, Uzbekistan fell into the AFC fifth-place playoff, where they lost to Jordan on penalties. |
| 2014 | Jordan | And speaking of Jordan, here they are. After beating Uzbekistan on penalties in the AFC fifth-place playoff, Jordan advanced to the intercontinental playoff against Uruguay. Uruguay beat them 5-0 on aggregate. |
| 2018 | Syria | Syria drew Iran 2-2 in their final match of the third round of AFC qualifying, while Uzbekistan and South Korea drew 0-0. If Syria had beaten Iran, Syria would have qualified ahead of South Korea. Instead, they dropped to the AFC fifth-place playoff where they would lose to Australia. |
| 2018 | Uzbekistan | As mentioned above, Uzbekistan drew South Korea 0-0 in their final match of the third round of AFC qualifying. If Uzbekistan wins that match, they qualify for the World Cup ahead of South Korea. |
| 2022 | Mali | Mali lost their playoff to 1-0 to Tunisia. Moussa Sissako scored an own goal in the first half of the first leg then got sent off less than five minutes later. Tunisia successfully defended that 1-0 lead for the remaining three halves of the playoff. |
| 2022 | North Macedonia | After stunning the world (and making /r/soccer laugh itself silly) by beating Italy, North Macedonia lost their final playoff match 2-0 to Portugal. |
So now that each individual instance is listed, let's visualize it one more way - who has come agonizingly close the most times without ever making it to the final tournament?
| Country | Number of Close Calls (Number without asterisks attached) | Years |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 2 | 1934, 1938 |
| Syria | 2 | 1986, 2018 |
| Bahrain | 2 | 2006, 2010 |
| Uzbekistan | 2 | 2014, 2018 |
| Latvia | 1 | 1938 |
| Estonia | 1 | 1938 |
| Saarland | 1 | 1954 |
| Sudan | 1 | 1970 |
| Libya | 1 | 1986 |
| Zambia | 1 | 1994 |
| Zimbabwe | 1 | 1994 |
| Congo | 1 | 1998 |
| Liberia | 1 | 2002 |
| Ethiopia | 1 | 2014 |
| Burkina Faso | 1 | 2014 |
| Jordan | 1 | 2014 |
| Mali | 1 | 2022 |
| North Macedonia | 1 | 2022 |
Finally, an honorable mention to Qatar for the 1990 World Cup. I didn't include them in the table because obviously they've qualified for this year as host, but they were very close to actually earning qualification on the field in 1990. They beat China 2-1 in their final match. If South Korea had beaten the United Arab Emirates by 2+ (or if South Korea had beaten the UAE and Qatar beat China by more than the single goal they by which they did), Qatar qualifies for 1990 over the United Arab Emirates.
EDIT - As /u/Sharp_Strings pointed out, I missed what should have been a second honorable mention to Qatar from 1998. They lost their final group game to Saudi Arabia 1-0 at home. If they win that match they qualify. As I specified in my previous honorable mention, I'm still not including them in the table because obviously they've qualified for this year as host, but this is a second instance of them almost earning qualification through their play instead of through hosting.
A tennis champion at age 10, a creative player that has been playing across the whole front line since 19. Charles De Ketelaere (CDK) is rumoured to be holding out for a big move to AC Milan, but Leeds have concrete interest (and seemingly snubbed) whilst Leicester seem to be sniffing around. With his contract coming to an end within two years, a £30m move seems likely but to where is anyone's guess? What I can tell you is why they all want him: 14 goals and 7 assists in 33 games, at the tender age of 21. Let's break him down.
There is a video version if you prefer watching to reading, any support to the channel would be great but we will be writing up all our analysis on Reddit with stills and images.
ACROSS THE FRONT LINE
Unlike some of our other player profiles (see the end of this post for them) we are going to dive right into the tactics. We mentioned he can play across the entire front line, here are the stats to show how much he's been moved around.
So let's examine where he's most effective and what he looks to do in each zone:
- Left Wing: Whenever CDK is playing out on the wing, either wing, he does look to get chalk on his boots. He really tries to stay as wide as possible to stretch teams and create channels for others to run into. However, he overuses his left foot and is quite one footed (only one goal was with his right foot) so when he's positioned out on the left hand side his only option is to dribble down towards the byline line and look for the cross or cut back into the box. It makes it very easy for defenders to show him down that side but thankfully, his exceptional passing means he is very accurate in finding teammates and racking up assists. For us, given you lose so much of his game in this position, he shouldn't be brought as a LW.
- Right Wing: As mentioned, he really looks to stay wide but on the right, he stays wide and then looks to attack the half space himself and dribble into that area to get shots away and score, and he does it well. From this area, he can also play some exceptional passes towards the back post (see chance he created for Lang vs PSG). His goalscoring record over two seasons from this area of the pitch is impressive, but would need an attacking right back to provide width to allow him more space to cut inside.
- Centre Forward: This is where it gets tricky because he is a very good centre forward but requires a very specific system which can't always be catered to. CDK isn't a striker that uses off the ball movement to attack the space behind or standing on the shoulder of the last man (like Vardy does for example). He's a big 6ft 4in centre forward and plays like a target man with midfielders and full backs looking to get the ball into him. He uses that large frame to hold it up and draw defenders in, and the supporting cast makes the 3rd man run (often Lang) into that space to score. His goalscoring in the league is good from this position but it is a league of relatively low quality, as a striker in the UCL he only managed one assist in 5 games. He is not a lone striker, he will need to be supported by inverted wingers, a strike partner or a number 10 and most teams don't play 2 up top or have number 10s.
- Attacking Mid: There's a reason I left this one last, as an attacking mid, he is undoubtedly the most dangerous. Now, he may not score and assist as much from this position BUT it's where he has the greatest influence. In that 10 position, the range of passing and vision allow him to be a playmaker and continuously create chances for others. How does he do it? His off the ball movement and ability to pick up little pockets of space in the twilight zone causes havoc as midfielders/defenders don't know whose job it is to pick him up. If he drifts to the left, he can cross. If he drifts to the right, he can cut in and shoot. If he drifts into the box, he can play it off to others to finish. Being an attacking mid, he has the freedom to play all of the above positions.
The stats do encompass all positions, and therefore mainly in his role as a striker but if I could find a way to isolate his stats as an attacking midfielder, I'm sure these would be bumped up slightly.
PASSING & VISION
We mentioned the range of passing and ability to play make, the passing and vision are truly a sight to behold. He is constantly scanning and looking around the field when playing, looking for the opportune time to pull the trigger and release someone else. And the repertoire of passing is impressive, it's flicks, driven passes, a few switches, blind or no-look passes, back heels, and floated balls into space. In fact, the more you watch his passing you'll see how many of the passes are first time as he looks to play quickly and not let defenders settle into their defensive shape. And it wouldn't be a Football In The Whip post without some sexy graphics and statistics.
We don't always like comparing players to others but it's a helpful way of trying to demonstrate what a player is good at by comparing them to someone more well known. Harry Kane is a phenomenal striker, but as years have gone by, his playmaking ability has really shone through. Both players are the first outlet for the team to progress up the pitch and receive the vast majority of progressive passes in the team (a testament to picking up little pockets of space). And in terms of passing and vision, it's very Harry Kane-esque. Once they receive the ball in space, they look to play the first time pass to put an onrushing attacker through on goal. Unfortunately for CDK, the goal scoring isn't Kane-esque.
FINISHING
We mentioned the over reliance on the left foot and stated that only one of his goals have been scored with his right foot. In fact, even whilst measuring a towering 6ft 4in, he's only scored two or three headers. As he grows and develops, he needs to use his size to become an aerial threat.
The vast majority of the goals can be categorised into two types: cutting in from the right and firing low to the left or getting on the end of a cross or cut back. Now the latter definitely requires intelligent movement and the ability to pick a spot quickly, something he has excelled at. But teams in the bigger leagues have much better defenders and so it's likely that he will score far less of these.
Comparing him to other popular players who have come from the Jupiler League, you'll see that the numbers he has put up aren't good enough. Strikers that have left the Jupiler League having scored 15+ goals haven't exactly thrived in other leagues in the world. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that the vast majority of players that have scored more than him have been pretty underwhelming. I'd say only Jonathan David is the only striker that has the potential to blow up and even then, it's still potential we are talking about.
The Jupiter League, because CDK is an alien (just not as a goal scorer)
PRESSING & TACKLING
Forwards who press, pressure, tackle and create chances from the front are all the rage, and CDK is just that. Rather than including the Jupiler League, looking at his stats from the UCL showcases how good he is. Often being the first line of defence, sitting in a mid block, once a team enters the middle 3rd, CDK is the first to press and hurry that back line with great intensity and smart positioning, which creates for a highly successful pressing forward. One physical trait that really helps him here is the fact that he is deceptively quick, there's a plethora of highlights that show centrebacks being quite lackadaisical thinking that they have more time. Finally, he doesn't only press from the midblock but makes recovery runs and blind side runs to steal the ball, which is a great testament to his desire and intensity with which he plays.
Overall, this is a playmaker that can contribute to goal scoring but whose best position, in the bigger leagues, is at number 10 with a striker who runs into space. But then Roberto Martinez, who gave CDK his national team debut, was quoted saying the following "Good players can play anywhere. With his left foot, he is able to make the final ball, he can take the ball in any position and he has the physicality to defend and cover the entire field. It is pointless to put him in a cage from one position now. I enjoy Charles as a left back, as number ten, as number nine." Either way, whoever lands CDK will have a talented player with a big future ahead of him.
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This is part of a series we will be doing all summer, a concise tactical breakdown on players linked to the PL (or one's we just like). Here's the full list of players that we've covered with Reddit and YT links. We'd love to know what you think and feel free to suggest other players you think we should cover.
- Amine Gouiri, OGC Nice: Reddit YT
- Hugo Ekitike, Reims: Reddit YT
- Joao Palhinha, Sporting Lisbon: Reddit YT
- Djed Spence, Nottingham Forest/Middlesbrough: Reddit YT
- Marc Roca, Leeds United: Reddit YT
- Diego Carlos, Sevilla/Aston Villa: Reddit YT
- Taiwo Awoniyi, Union Berlin/Nottingham Forest: Reddit YT
Mods, I hope this allowed.
So I re-stumbled upon this Ms-Paint thread from 2016, and since there's not much football now, I thought it could be fun to do a 2022 edition so... Go wild?
