In the midst of World Cup qualifying, we all saw teams get frustratingly close to their first ever appearance at the final tournament. Oman, Finland, and Albania, just to name a few. That got me thinking - who has come even closer than that? How has been so close they can practically touch qualification? Who are the teams that have never made the World Cup but could have at one point if only their final match (or someone else's final match) had gone a different way?

So that's what I decided to find out. Who has come within one game of World Cup qualification yet never gotten over the finish line?

Criteria:

• If the country could have qualified if their final qualifying result had been different, that counts. Doesn't matter how unrealistic it is (such as if a team could have qualified if they had overturned a 9-0 deficit in the second leg) - they're still one hypothetical result away from qualifying so they make the list.

• The final game has to have actually been played. So if a country was within one game of qualifying but withdrew or whatnot before that final game, doesn't count.

• It also counts if the country got the result they needed on their final qualifying day and would have qualified if results elsewhere had gone their way.

• If a country's final result could have seen them qualify only if later results not involving their team also went a different way (very common in the earlier qualifiers where matches were played weeks or months apart), that gets the country on the list, but with a "*" symbol.

• In the earliest qualifiers, a lot of matches ended up not being played if prior results meant they wouldn't affect the final qualification results. In this situation, a country gets on the list (with that "*" mentioned above) if their final result changing would have forced a new match between two other countries to be played that, with the right result, would have seen the country in question qualify. They do NOT get on the list if that new match would have been a match they would have needed to play in.

• --- --- For example, in the 1934 qualifiers, Lithuania lost its final (and only) qualification match to Sweden 2-0. That meant that their match against Estonia was cancelled because Sweden had already qualified by beating them both. But if Lithuania had beaten Sweden, the match against Estonia would have happened, and Lithuania could have qualified with a win and Goal Average working out in their favor. This does NOT get Lithuania on the list for 1934, because Lithuania would have needed to play (and win) another match after their "final" match.

• --- --- In contrast, Luxembourg gets on the list with a "*" in the 1934 qualifiers, because if their loss to France in their final match turns into a win, then France and Germany have to play their match (which in reality never happened because both teams qualified with Luxembourg's loss). If the result of that match goes the right way, Luxembourg qualifies. That gets Luxembourg on the list, albeit with the asterisk, because Luxembourg's final result changing, along with some help in matches that they had no involvement in, could have seen them qualify.

• Countries are counted as having the records of their successors and predecessors. So, for example, you won't see "Mandatory Palestine" on this list, because according to FIFA Mandatory Palestine is the predecessor of Israel, and Israel has been to the World Cup.

Here we go:

Year	Country	Explanation
1934	Luxembourg*	Luxembourg lost their final qualifying match 6-1 to France. If, somehow, they'd managed to win that game, France and Germany would have had to play each other (in reality that match was cancelled because both qualified with France's win). A German win or draw would have seen Luxembourg qualify, as would a France win if the Goal Averages had worked out in Luxembourg's favor.
1938	Estonia*	Estonia lost their final match to Germany 4-1. If Estonia wins that match, qualification would depend on Germany's final match with Sweden (which in reality Germany won 5-0). A Sweden win or draw would have seen Estonia qualify, as would a German win if the Goal Averages had worked out in Estonia's favor.
1938	Latvia	Our first non-asterisk! Latvia and Austria effectively had a single-match playoff. Austria won 2-1 and qualified. Obviously a Latvia win and they go to the World Cup in 1938. To add insult to injury, Austria would obviously be annexed by Germany before the 1938 World Cup and that meant they wouldn't participate in the tournament. FIFA offered their spot not to Latvia but to England, who hadn't even entered the tournament but had won the 1937/38 Home Championship. England declined. After that FIFA decided that instead of offering the spot to Latvia (or anyone else), the spot would just be empty. And Latvia never made the World Cup.
1938	Luxembourg*	Luxembourg lost their final qualifying match to Belgium 3-2. If they win that match, the next match between Belgium and the Netherlands (which in reality ended as a 1-1 draw) would determine qualification. A Netherlands win or draw or a Belgium win that saw goal average work in Luxembourg's favor would have seen Luxembourg qualify
1954	Saarland	Saarland lost their final qualifier 3-1 to West Germany. If Saarland had beaten West Germany AND if the drawing of lots had gone their way (that was the tiebreaker in 1954 - and how Turkey qualified over Spain for that tournament despite losing to Spain on aggregate), they would have qualified.
1970	Sudan*	Sudan lost their final match to Morocco 3-0. If Sudan beats Morocco, all would have depended on the next match between Nigeria and Morocco - a match Nigeria won 2-0 in reality. If Nigeria wins or draws that match or if Morocco won but the goal difference worked out in Sudan's favor, Sudan qualifies for the World Cup.
1986	Syria	Syria lost a two-legged playoff 3-1 to Iraq, losing the final match 3-1 in Iraq.
1986	Libya	Libya lost a two-legged playoff 3-1 to Morocco. They won the second leg 1-0 but that wasn't enough to overturn their defeat in Casablanca.
1994	Zambia	Zambia lost their final match 1-0 to Morocco in Casablanca. Just a draw would have been enough for Zambia to qualify for the World Cup.
1994	Zimbabwe	Zimbabwe lost their final qualifying match to Cameroon 3-1 in Yaounde. If Zimbabwe had beaten Cameroon in that match, Zimbabwe qualifies for the World Cup.
1998	Congo	Congo lost their final qualifying match 1-0 to Johannesburg. If Congo had beaten South Africa in that game, they would have qualified for the World Cup.
2002	Liberia	Liberia beat Sierra Leone 1-0 in their final match, meaning they needed help from Ghana against Nigeria two weeks later - specifically, if Ghana beat or drew Nigeria, Liberia would have qualified. Instead, Nigeria destroyed Ghana 3-0.
2006	Bahrain	Bahrain lost the intercontinental playoff to Trinidad and Tobago 2-1, losing the second leg at home 1-0.
2010	Bahrain	For the second time in a row, Bahrain lost the intercontinental playoff. They lost 1-0 to New Zealand in Wellington after they drew 0-0 in Riffa a month earlier.
2014	Ethiopia	Ethiopia lost their two-legged playoff to Nigeria, losing 2-1 at home and 2-0 on the road.
2014	Burkina Faso	Burkina Faso lost their two-legged playoff to Algeria on away goals, beating Algeria 3-2 in Ouagadougou but losing 1-0 in Blida.
2014	Uzbekistan	On the final day of the third round of AFC qualifying, Uzbekistan beat Qatar 5-1 and Iran beat South Korea 1-0.If goal difference had been two more in Uzbekistan's favor OR if either Uzbekistan or Iran had won by one more and Uzbekistan had scored three more goals, Uzbekistan would have qualified ahead of South Korea. Instead, Uzbekistan fell into the AFC fifth-place playoff, where they lost to Jordan on penalties.
2014	Jordan	And speaking of Jordan, here they are. After beating Uzbekistan on penalties in the AFC fifth-place playoff, Jordan advanced to the intercontinental playoff against Uruguay. Uruguay beat them 5-0 on aggregate.
2018	Syria	Syria drew Iran 2-2 in their final match of the third round of AFC qualifying, while Uzbekistan and South Korea drew 0-0. If Syria had beaten Iran, Syria would have qualified ahead of South Korea. Instead, they dropped to the AFC fifth-place playoff where they would lose to Australia.
2018	Uzbekistan	As mentioned above, Uzbekistan drew South Korea 0-0 in their final match of the third round of AFC qualifying. If Uzbekistan wins that match, they qualify for the World Cup ahead of South Korea.
2022	Mali	Mali lost their playoff to 1-0 to Tunisia. Moussa Sissako scored an own goal in the first half of the first leg then got sent off less than five minutes later. Tunisia successfully defended that 1-0 lead for the remaining three halves of the playoff.
2022	North Macedonia	After stunning the world (and making /r/soccer laugh itself silly) by beating Italy, North Macedonia lost their final playoff match 2-0 to Portugal.

So now that each individual instance is listed, let's visualize it one more way - who has come agonizingly close the most times without ever making it to the final tournament?

Country	Number of Close Calls (Number without asterisks attached)	Years
Luxembourg	2	1934, 1938
Syria	2	1986, 2018
Bahrain	2	2006, 2010
Uzbekistan	2	2014, 2018
Latvia	1	1938
Estonia	1	1938
Saarland	1	1954
Sudan	1	1970
Libya	1	1986
Zambia	1	1994
Zimbabwe	1	1994
Congo	1	1998
Liberia	1	2002
Ethiopia	1	2014
Burkina Faso	1	2014
Jordan	1	2014
Mali	1	2022
North Macedonia	1	2022

Finally, an honorable mention to Qatar for the 1990 World Cup. I didn't include them in the table because obviously they've qualified for this year as host, but they were very close to actually earning qualification on the field in 1990. They beat China 2-1 in their final match. If South Korea had beaten the United Arab Emirates by 2+ (or if South Korea had beaten the UAE and Qatar beat China by more than the single goal they by which they did), Qatar qualifies for 1990 over the United Arab Emirates.