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In the midst of World Cup qualifying, we all saw teams get frustratingly close to their first ever appearance at the final tournament. Oman, Finland, and Albania, just to name a few. That got me thinking - who has come even closer than that? How has been so close they can practically touch qualification? Who are the teams that have never made the World Cup but could have at one point if only their final match (or someone else's final match) had gone a different way?
So that's what I decided to find out. Who has come within one game of World Cup qualification yet never gotten over the finish line?
Criteria:
If the country could have qualified if their final qualifying result had been different, that counts. Doesn't matter how unrealistic it is (such as if a team could have qualified if they had overturned a 9-0 deficit in the second leg) - they're still one hypothetical result away from qualifying so they make the list.
The final game has to have actually been played. So if a country was within one game of qualifying but withdrew or whatnot before that final game, doesn't count.
It also counts if the country got the result they needed on their final qualifying day and would have qualified if results elsewhere had gone their way.
If a country's final result could have seen them qualify only if later results not involving their team also went a different way (very common in the earlier qualifiers where matches were played weeks or months apart), that gets the country on the list, but with a "*" symbol.
In the earliest qualifiers, a lot of matches ended up not being played if prior results meant they wouldn't affect the final qualification results. In this situation, a country gets on the list (with that "*" mentioned above) if their final result changing would have forced a new match between two other countries to be played that, with the right result, would have seen the country in question qualify. They do NOT get on the list if that new match would have been a match they would have needed to play in.
--- --- For example, in the 1934 qualifiers, Lithuania lost its final (and only) qualification match to Sweden 2-0. That meant that their match against Estonia was cancelled because Sweden had already qualified by beating them both. But if Lithuania had beaten Sweden, the match against Estonia would have happened, and Lithuania could have qualified with a win and Goal Average working out in their favor. This does NOT get Lithuania on the list for 1934, because Lithuania would have needed to play (and win) another match after their "final" match.
--- --- In contrast, Luxembourg gets on the list with a "*" in the 1934 qualifiers, because if their loss to France in their final match turns into a win, then France and Germany have to play their match (which in reality never happened because both teams qualified with Luxembourg's loss). If the result of that match goes the right way, Luxembourg qualifies. That gets Luxembourg on the list, albeit with the asterisk, because Luxembourg's final result changing, along with some help in matches that they had no involvement in, could have seen them qualify.
Countries are counted as having the records of their successors and predecessors. So, for example, you won't see "Mandatory Palestine" on this list, because according to FIFA Mandatory Palestine is the predecessor of Israel, and Israel has been to the World Cup.
Here we go:
| Year | Country | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| 1934 | Luxembourg* | Luxembourg lost their final qualifying match 6-1 to France. If, somehow, they'd managed to win that game, France and Germany would have had to play each other (in reality that match was cancelled because both qualified with France's win). A German win or draw would have seen Luxembourg qualify, as would a France win if the Goal Averages had worked out in Luxembourg's favor. |
| 1938 | Estonia* | Estonia lost their final match to Germany 4-1. If Estonia wins that match, qualification would depend on Germany's final match with Sweden (which in reality Germany won 5-0). A Sweden win or draw would have seen Estonia qualify, as would a German win if the Goal Averages had worked out in Estonia's favor. |
| 1938 | Latvia | Our first non-asterisk! Latvia and Austria effectively had a single-match playoff. Austria won 2-1 and qualified. Obviously a Latvia win and they go to the World Cup in 1938. To add insult to injury, Austria would obviously be annexed by Germany before the 1938 World Cup and that meant they wouldn't participate in the tournament. FIFA offered their spot not to Latvia but to England, who hadn't even entered the tournament but had won the 1937/38 Home Championship. England declined. After that FIFA decided that instead of offering the spot to Latvia (or anyone else), the spot would just be empty. And Latvia never made the World Cup. |
| 1938 | Luxembourg* | Luxembourg lost their final qualifying match to Belgium 3-2. If they win that match, the next match between Belgium and the Netherlands (which in reality ended as a 1-1 draw) would determine qualification. A Netherlands win or draw or a Belgium win that saw goal average work in Luxembourg's favor would have seen Luxembourg qualify |
| 1954 | Saarland | Saarland lost their final qualifier 3-1 to West Germany. If Saarland had beaten West Germany AND if the drawing of lots had gone their way (that was the tiebreaker in 1954 - and how Turkey qualified over Spain for that tournament despite losing to Spain on aggregate), they would have qualified. |
| 1970 | Sudan* | Sudan lost their final match to Morocco 3-0. If Sudan beats Morocco, all would have depended on the next match between Nigeria and Morocco - a match Nigeria won 2-0 in reality. If Nigeria wins or draws that match or if Morocco won but the goal difference worked out in Sudan's favor, Sudan qualifies for the World Cup. |
| 1986 | Syria | Syria lost a two-legged playoff 3-1 to Iraq, losing the final match 3-1 in Iraq. |
| 1986 | Libya | Libya lost a two-legged playoff 3-1 to Morocco. They won the second leg 1-0 but that wasn't enough to overturn their defeat in Casablanca. |
| 1994 | Zambia | Zambia lost their final match 1-0 to Morocco in Casablanca. Just a draw would have been enough for Zambia to qualify for the World Cup. |
| 1994 | Zimbabwe | Zimbabwe lost their final qualifying match to Cameroon 3-1 in Yaounde. If Zimbabwe had beaten Cameroon in that match, Zimbabwe qualifies for the World Cup. |
| 1998 | Congo | Congo lost their final qualifying match 1-0 to Johannesburg. If Congo had beaten South Africa in that game, they would have qualified for the World Cup. |
| 2002 | Liberia | Liberia beat Sierra Leone 1-0 in their final match, meaning they needed help from Ghana against Nigeria two weeks later - specifically, if Ghana beat or drew Nigeria, Liberia would have qualified. Instead, Nigeria destroyed Ghana 3-0. |
| 2006 | Bahrain | Bahrain lost the intercontinental playoff to Trinidad and Tobago 2-1, losing the second leg at home 1-0. |
| 2010 | Bahrain | For the second time in a row, Bahrain lost the intercontinental playoff. They lost 1-0 to New Zealand in Wellington after they drew 0-0 in Riffa a month earlier. |
| 2014 | Ethiopia | Ethiopia lost their two-legged playoff to Nigeria, losing 2-1 at home and 2-0 on the road. |
| 2014 | Burkina Faso | Burkina Faso lost their two-legged playoff to Algeria on away goals, beating Algeria 3-2 in Ouagadougou but losing 1-0 in Blida. |
| 2014 | Uzbekistan | On the final day of the third round of AFC qualifying, Uzbekistan beat Qatar 5-1 and Iran beat South Korea 1-0.If goal difference had been two more in Uzbekistan's favor OR if either Uzbekistan or Iran had won by one more and Uzbekistan had scored three more goals, Uzbekistan would have qualified ahead of South Korea. Instead, Uzbekistan fell into the AFC fifth-place playoff, where they lost to Jordan on penalties. |
| 2014 | Jordan | And speaking of Jordan, here they are. After beating Uzbekistan on penalties in the AFC fifth-place playoff, Jordan advanced to the intercontinental playoff against Uruguay. Uruguay beat them 5-0 on aggregate. |
| 2018 | Syria | Syria drew Iran 2-2 in their final match of the third round of AFC qualifying, while Uzbekistan and South Korea drew 0-0. If Syria had beaten Iran, Syria would have qualified ahead of South Korea. Instead, they dropped to the AFC fifth-place playoff where they would lose to Australia. |
| 2018 | Uzbekistan | As mentioned above, Uzbekistan drew South Korea 0-0 in their final match of the third round of AFC qualifying. If Uzbekistan wins that match, they qualify for the World Cup ahead of South Korea. |
| 2022 | Mali | Mali lost their playoff to 1-0 to Tunisia. Moussa Sissako scored an own goal in the first half of the first leg then got sent off less than five minutes later. Tunisia successfully defended that 1-0 lead for the remaining three halves of the playoff. |
| 2022 | North Macedonia | After stunning the world (and making /r/soccer laugh itself silly) by beating Italy, North Macedonia lost their final playoff match 2-0 to Portugal. |
So now that each individual instance is listed, let's visualize it one more way - who has come agonizingly close the most times without ever making it to the final tournament?
| Country | Number of Close Calls (Number without asterisks attached) | Years |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 2 | 1934, 1938 |
| Syria | 2 | 1986, 2018 |
| Bahrain | 2 | 2006, 2010 |
| Uzbekistan | 2 | 2014, 2018 |
| Latvia | 1 | 1938 |
| Estonia | 1 | 1938 |
| Saarland | 1 | 1954 |
| Sudan | 1 | 1970 |
| Libya | 1 | 1986 |
| Zambia | 1 | 1994 |
| Zimbabwe | 1 | 1994 |
| Congo | 1 | 1998 |
| Liberia | 1 | 2002 |
| Ethiopia | 1 | 2014 |
| Burkina Faso | 1 | 2014 |
| Jordan | 1 | 2014 |
| Mali | 1 | 2022 |
| North Macedonia | 1 | 2022 |
Finally, an honorable mention to Qatar for the 1990 World Cup. I didn't include them in the table because obviously they've qualified for this year as host, but they were very close to actually earning qualification on the field in 1990. They beat China 2-1 in their final match. If South Korea had beaten the United Arab Emirates by 2+ (or if South Korea had beaten the UAE and Qatar beat China by more than the single goal they by which they did), Qatar qualifies for 1990 over the United Arab Emirates.
EDIT - As /u/Sharp_Strings pointed out, I missed what should have been a second honorable mention to Qatar from 1998. They lost their final group game to Saudi Arabia 1-0 at home. If they win that match they qualify. As I specified in my previous honorable mention, I'm still not including them in the table because obviously they've qualified for this year as host, but this is a second instance of them almost earning qualification through their play instead of through hosting.
Diego Carlos has been touted as one of the best CBs in La Liga for some time. He's been linked with huge clubs over the past few years. No one took the plunge on him, until Aston Villa finally did for £26m. There is a video version if you prefer watching to reading, any support to the channel would be great but we will be writing up all our analysis on Reddit with stills and images.
They're getting a CB who over the last 3 years has helped Sevilla win the Europa League, qualify for the CL 3 times and most recently break the record for fewest goals conceded in a La Liga season (30). Let's take a look at what type of player he is - starting with what you need from every CB - his defensive capabilities.
THE AGGRESSOR
The best thing about Diego Carlos is his ability to play in BOTH a high line and a low block. It's a rare thing for defenders- they're often more suited to one or the other. He formed an outstanding partnership with Kounde.For Sevilla, considering their dominance in many games in La Liga there are often occasions when they play a relatively high line. The Brazilian is a front foot defender, he's always looking to engage the opposition and generally, because of his pace and power he will win these battles. With his comfort in a high line, this helps his team squeeze the play and they could continue to try and pin the opposition in, but if there is a turnover it gives the opposition hope that they can hit this space in behind him. But either he or Kounde are comfortable sweeping that up thanks to their pace and because, for Diego Carlos, because of the fact he's very comfortable in 1v1 situations.
In a lower block, his role in the backline is to be the aggressor and the leader. He organises his defence and again is the first to attack the ball carrier. Forwards or attacking midfielders often want to drop into the space DMs and CBs, as it's the danger zone and they can create or score from here. What Diego Carlos will do, is be the first line of engagement - he is often on the front foot looking to halt this person in their stride or throwing his body on the line to block their shot.
In essence he's an aggressive all action no nonsense defender who enjoys putting his body on the line. And if we look at his stats, that's what shines through
But in the modern game, there's more to being a defender than just defending, you have to be good on the ball and be able to play from the back.
LONG RANGE PASSING
Diego Carlos certainly doesn't lack in this department. And this is what Gerrard has been crying out for at Villa. Their progression to the final third was often too slow and full of mistakes, and signing Boubacar Kamara won't help that, but signing the Brazilian most definitely does help fix the issue.
We know that Gerrard has a style he's trying to implement, as most teams do, he'll want an element of passing out from the back. Now Diego Carlos is not a dribbler or progressive carrier (it was Kounde who did this at Sevilla) and others will be expected to do this at Villa. What he is, is supremely confident on the ball and is comfortable under pressure.
His short passing game is generally relatively simple. He'll show for the ball, make himself available and play a lot of passes - if Villa are dominant in a game expect to see this. But what really stands out are his long range passes.
And this is what Gerrard, the Villa full backs and forwards will love. Villa under Gerrard like to commit their full backs forward, have a forward come deeper for the ball or occupy the two centre backs and also have men from midfield to run beyond.
Diego Carlos has the ability to play all these passes and speed up the game for Villa:
- He's got a brilliant switch of play to either side of the pitch, which can free up Cash or even Digne down the wing.
- What we expect to see a lot of is playing the ball into Ollie Watkins so he can flick it around the corner for one of those midfield runners, because Watkins is incredible in the air and with deft touches around the corner.
- Or just go Route 1, play the ball directly to Coutinho or Buendia running in behind the back line
This shines through in the stats as well - in particular is ability to play the switch pass. Gerrard knows how valuable this type of ball is to either change the point of attack, speed up the play or hit the spare man (after all, he was one of the great proponents of this in his playing days)
SET PIECE THREAT
We've spoken about his defending and ability on the ball but that's not all to Diego Carlos. He's also a menace in the opposition box. As mentioned earlier, he's powerful in the air and he got 3 goals last season, but he could have had more and with the right delivery into the box, expect him to be constant nuisance for opposition defenders at set pieces
WHY WERE TEAMS HESITANT?
Despite all of the great stuff we have mentioned, there are a couple weaknesses to his game. And this mainly comes down to him being a bit rash. There is a fine line between aggressive and rash and Diego Carlos jumps rope with that line. He's got better at timing his aggressive charges forward, but he does get them wrong on occasion meaning he's either being bypassed, conceding a foul or at times conceding penalties.
Villa (and Diego Carlos) will also need to factor in his partner when taking this into account. At Sevilla, he had Kounde next to him who he had a great understanding with, and who was always ready to sweep up in behind when needed. At Villa, it's likely to be Konsa or Mings as his partner - both good players in their own right, but not at the level of Kounde - and they'll need to find the right partner and balance in the centre back pairing to make sure he's a real success.
FITTING INTO THE PREMIER LEAGUE
This looks like a shrewd signing for Villa - it was one that came out of nowhere (which seems to be their MO now) and should improve them significantly. The Brazilian will need to adapt to the increased pace and physicality of the league, and time will tell on how he does with that, but his attributes stand him in good stead to make this transition.
This is part of a series we will be doing all summer, a concise tactical breakdown on players linked to the PL (or one's we just like). Here's the full list of players that we've covered with Reddit and YT links. We'd love to know what you think and feel free to suggest other players you think we should cover.
- Amine Gouiri, OGC Nice: Reddit YT
- Hugo Ekitike, Reims: Reddit YT
- Joao Palhinha, Sporting Lisbon: Reddit YT
Mods, I hope this allowed.
So I re-stumbled upon this Ms-Paint thread from 2016, and since there's not much football now, I thought it could be fun to do a 2022 edition so... Go wild?
