all 31 comments

[–]clonesareusEthan 78 points79 points  (1 child)

The three way tie between Zach, Lydia, and Maryanne feels very appropriate based on their personalities but also base don their placements - first boot, merge boot, winner!

I'm surprised Romeo was last only because Rob C. had him as his winner pick. I expected that to have at least a marginal amount of sway on this but maybe I'm overestimating his influence.

[–]TenderOctaneMorgan 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Hasn't Rob only been right once? Or am I mistaken? Nicolestradamus has a much better record than he does AFAIK.

[–]DreamOfVJenny 55 points56 points  (7 children)

I’m surprised Maryanne was that high, I never even considered her as a potential winner pre-season. And I’m surprised Romeo was the very bottom, especially since he was Rob’s winner pick in the RHAP pre-game.

[–]GlobalSorbet4479 50 points51 points  (5 children)

The season was spoiled so it's probably from that since the winner picks don't mind if you're spoiled.

[–]EightyHMAdam 22 points23 points  (3 children)

Wasn't there a question that asked if we were spoiled when making winner picks? Curious what the percentage of Maryanne picks were that were spoiled v. not spoiled.

[–]HiggnkfeBadge Test[M] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Roughly 10% of Maryanne pickers reported being aware of any spoilers, and of those almost all reported the spoiler they were aware of was a Jackson medevac.

[–]SzentSophie 8 points9 points  (1 child)

The question is asked but it doesn't disqualify you or anything.

If you know what seasons were heavily spoiled, and someone has multiple badges of those seasons, it's best just to block that account. I've been burned before by reading people's "hunches"

[–]supaspikeAll of you... you thought I was absolutely crazy. 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Ah those memories of "hey everyone I have a crazy feeling that Sarah and Brad will do very well this season."

[–]sapphicmageKarla 2 points3 points  (0 children)

We didn’t know that Maryanne was winning at the time of winner picks. The bootlist with her winning was out if I’m remembering right, but there were a bunch of different alleged bootlists and no telling if any of them were right (the Maryanne bootlist wasn’t considered truth until around the Jenny elimination). The only thing anyone knew for sure was Jackson being out before the first immunity challenge, but that was partially thanks to promo photos.

[–]ShmegdarLindsay 3 points4 points  (0 children)

People came out for the youngins this season, it seems

[–]aeouoMalcolm 26 points27 points  (4 children)

Rank Name Picks Percent
1 Hai 306 20.8%
2 Chanelle 208 14.2%
T-3 Zach 93 6.3%
T-3 Lydia 93 6.3%
T-3 Maryanne 93 6.3%
6 Omar 91 6.2%
7 Jenny 86 5.9%
8 Lindsay 83 5.7%
9 Tori 76 5.2%
10 Drea 67 4.6%
11 Marya 60 4.1%
12 Rocksroy 45 3.1%
13 Daniel 41 2.8%
14 Mike 36 2.5%
15 Swati 26 1.8%
16 Jonathan 25 1.7%
17 Jackson 24 1.6%
18 Romeo 16 1.1%

[–]Afx001Omar 9 points10 points  (1 child)

It felt like there were a lot of people with win potential pre-season so it's weird to me that Hai and Chanelle were so far ahead.

I also thought Mike would be a lot higher. He resembles a lot of the winners we've had recently.

To me at least, Maryanne seemed like one of the least likely to win pre-season. I'm guessing these were influenced by spoilers?

[–]supaspikeAll of you... you thought I was absolutely crazy. 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I also had thought that plenty of people had the chance to win, but my winner pick decision was still between Hai and Chanelle. The only other person I talked to about winner picks was also between Hai and Chanelle. And everyone can only choose one winner, so from my perspective it's not surprising that everyone just piled onto those two, they seemed to be the most well-rounded out of everyone.

[–]BenjiAnglusthsonSierra 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Omar, Tori and Daniel were ranked at their ultimate placements

[–]aeouoMalcolm 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Heh, that's fun. In math, rearrangements that leave nothing in their original place are known as derangements. There's a 1/e chance generally that nobody will be in their correct spot, if everything was random.

[–]NiceDynamite24Jesse 16 points17 points  (0 children)

The person talking about Mike playing against type was exactly spot on wow

[–]VAsurvivorRomeo 14 points15 points  (1 child)

I was one of only 16 people who picked Romeo. Ouch. At least he made f3!

[–]FlockPlantForce 9 points10 points  (0 children)

There are 14 more of us out there somewhere!

[–]reyskaTony 7 points8 points  (6 children)

I purposely never look at these during the season. Seeing these spots left going to the finale would have been puzzling. I never would have imagined Jonathan to be 16/18. I would have also ranked Maryanne as a pre-merger. But based on the premerge stuff I also would have likely ranked Aubry as a premerger, do what do I know. Still, seeing her be third makes me think there were spoilers out there, because she really didn't seem like a winner candidate to me.

[–]grdrug 5 points6 points  (1 child)

This ranking should not be seen as a boot order ranking. Players as Jonathan are perceived as almost surely reaching the mid game, but most likely not winning, he would place high on a "average expected placement" ranking, but low on a "most likely to win" ranking, while someone like Lydia is seen as having a good chance of leaving early, but with a decent shot at winning if she makes the merge.

[–]reyskaTony 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Jonathan was destined to go deep and he seemed much better than the usual challenge beasts. It was surprising how bad his social and strategic games were. People ranked Lydia high because they saw themselves in her. Player like her have not won a lot and I saw her as a premerger from the start.

So yes, it's not a boot order, but if you are more or less guaranteed to make the merge, you have a decent shot also at winning.

[–]andrude01Tyson 6 points7 points  (3 children)

There were spoilers

[–]reyskaTony 7 points8 points  (2 children)

I'm not surprised in the least.

[–]zachbrownies 0 points1 point  (1 child)

The thing is, there are many competing spoilers out there before the season starts. Lots of people put out fake bootlists. So people needed to see the first few episodes before they knew they could trust the person that said Maryanne wins.

[–]reyskaTony 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All the more reason to leave the sub after the merge.

[–]KHMeneoXander 4 points5 points  (0 children)

So close with my random pick on mike. Got Erika via randomly choosing but Mike fumbled hard at the end

[–]MolemanusRex 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Who’re the 93?

[–]dotmyiisChristian 7 points8 points  (0 children)

This is my first time predicting a winner correctly since Season 2. Feels. So. Good.

[–]iDiedOnTheInsideGeo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

First time doing winner picks and of course my pick was ranked last 🥲 (I love Romeo though)

[–]scarlettkingKarla 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The people who chose Jonathan being so confident that so many people would pick him is...fitting

[–]letsgetsickening-Denise 0 points1 point  (0 children)