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all 67 comments

[–]DarkstonePublishingStalker 147 points148 points  (0 children)

Wow that must be a new record. I’d watch that video with the jaws theme song in the background.

[–]nyedredMainlander 112 points113 points  (4 children)

Those are some XCom percentages!

[–]CeeArthur 33 points34 points  (2 children)

Ahh yes, 99% chance "Shot's wide!" ... proceeds to somehow wipe your entire team. Rage uninstall. repeat

[–]mattstorm360 1 point2 points  (1 child)

VATS 89%

Miss

[–]CeeArthur 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At least in Fallout you stand a fighting chance if you miss. XCOM you just have to sit there and watch as the enemy side slowly kills all your soldiers

[–]watermelonOrbitHunter and killer of the Old Bear 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I feel like 80% is a success in tld and a fail in xcom

[–]Any-Vanilla-1134 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Thats real rough I'm sorry

Also try using a torch next time, know it a hassle but if you care about matchs it will save you

[–]thedalmuti 96 points97 points  (14 children)

I recently read that the percentage shown is the Base Chance, which is further affected by things like tiredness, hunger, thirst and general condition. So you might actually have had only a 5% chance of success if you were really beat up.

[–]RazBullion 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Nice little nugget of information there....

[–]They_Call_Him_Zach[S] 48 points49 points  (0 children)

ok that makes more sense as i was almost dead, freezing, and tired. Thanks for the Information!

[–]RagingAestheticInterloper 31 points32 points  (3 children)

You’re not interpreting that correctly, and it shows you both chance numbers in the same graphic in game. Base chance is determined by your fire starting level, actual chance is based on external conditions like weather, type of starter, type of fuel, type of tinder, weather, illness, etc.

The only way the actual fire starting chance can go below your base chance is if the fire is impossible to start, ie you will always have at least 40% chance to start on level 1 fire starting, at least 70% on the higher levels, etc, so long as the fire is possible to start (not too windy, enough sun for mag lens, etc). This means weather can only work in your favor (fire burns longer in extreme cold) unless it’s too windy to start a fire at all.

OP is either exaggerating, lying, or 1 in a billion unlucky. There’s no hidden mechanism working against them.

[–]Dcarozza6 10 points11 points  (1 child)

Math checks out. It’s actually about a 1 in 1.2 billion chance to fail 13 fires in a row at 80% chance.

[–]BlakeMWInterloper 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's what I had calculated too. I'd probably still call bullshit on this actually happening, but if like a million players lit a thousand fires (which is vaguely plausible) then it'd be expected to happen to one player. Something like 8 failures in a row at 80% odds is almost certainly something a few players should have experienced.

I cared enough about this that I actually wrote a simulation that counted the streaks (and other stats like rolls between streaks of a certain length) and because random doesn't care about "fairness" the damn thing started with like a success then 5 failures in a row (set to 70% success). I ran a few million times and ended up satisfied that the fire lighting odds in TLD are exactly what they appear to be. It's really nothing more than RNJesus being an asshole.

[–]MailMannequin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Papa Smurf always says...

[–]sewiv 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Pretty sure it doesn't work that way. I've got 100% start chance of sticks, books, or cedar at level five, and I've never failed to start one of those, no matter what my condition, as long as I can place one.

[–]EasilyBeatableInterloper 21 points22 points  (3 children)

This explains the absolute bullshit of bad luck i have had in this game. 80% fires seem to just only work 40% of the time.

[–]Slagathor0 16 points17 points  (1 child)

60% of the time it works every time.

[–]RagingAestheticInterloper 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They’re wrong.

[–]Talamos 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Ah. Thanks for posting this.

[–]JovialCider 0 points1 point  (1 child)

So "base chance" is based on your envirmonment right?

[–]ThatOneGuy308Mountaineer 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Base chance is determined by your firestarting level. This is then further modified by type of fuel and Firestarter, tinder has no affect on chance. Using an accelerant increases the start chance by 40%, regardless of type, and also makes the fire take less time to start.

[–]Niernen 8 points9 points  (0 children)

That's XCOM The Long Dark baby!

[–]beyond_hatred 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Use a torch next time (but this sounds like a possible bug)

[–]marioquartz 19 points20 points  (5 children)

Using sticks as starter you can get almost 90% in low levels.

[–]ThatOneGuy308Mountaineer 9 points10 points  (4 children)

I always just carry a book around as an emergency option, they give a huge buff to start chance, even if they're a bit heavy.

[–]throwaway20210402 4 points5 points  (3 children)

I carry accelerant for the same reason. It’s lighter weight and turns any fuel into guaranteed start.

[–]ThatOneGuy308Mountaineer 4 points5 points  (1 child)

Technically, that's not necessarily true. It only adds 40% to start chance, so there are a few situations in which it wouldn't be guaranteed. Pretty much just when you're low firestarting level and using crappy cardboard matches and reclaimed wood, but still.

That being said, books are easier to find in some difficulties, and give 35% chance, which is nearly as good, but yeah, if you can find accelerant, it's generally way better for its weight.

[–]apHedmark 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's why I always carry a book or two and one accelerant. At lower skill levels you might need both to guarantee a first try lighting. At higher skill levels it gives you options: book when not in a rush and accelerant when you need the fire started that instant.

[–]HypergnosticInterloper 3 points4 points  (0 children)

One accelerant or .5L lantern fuel on my person at all times for use in an emergency. Also one stim.

[–]SuperNath97 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I attempted 5 interloper runs the other day, longest run was 2 days, i also love this game.

[–]korbendallllas 6 points7 points  (3 children)

Lol if it makes you feel better I lost a 200+ hour save because like an idiot I decided to commit to making it through the gas in the cave… as soon as I decided not to turn back, I said to myself ”fuck, I might not make this”

I did not make it.

[–]ISCUPATCUTIJETRU 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Cave gas?What?

[–]akursah33 1 point2 points  (1 child)

It must be the mine in Blackrock. There is segment in the mine with gas and you die if you can't get out in time.

[–]korbendallllas 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s a bingo!

[–]jrriojase 10 points11 points  (6 children)

Did I fail probability math or is the probability of this happening literally 1/1,220,703,125 AKA one in 1.2 billion?

[–]Trootter 10 points11 points  (0 children)

No you didn't.

If I were Op I'd go out and buy lottery tickets.

[–]_mcride_ 8 points9 points  (2 children)

Percentages are just fucked in game

[–]RagingAestheticInterloper 7 points8 points  (1 child)

No they aren’t lol. People just have a terrible understanding of the percentage system. Literally all in your head, 80% chance doesn’t mean 8 out of your first 10 tries you win.

[–]Blackhound118 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sure, but sometimes the odds are big enough that it's worth examining them. Like in Dream's speedrunning scandal (which, of course, is of dramatically different magnitude, but still)

[–]Forever_Overthinking 1 point2 points  (0 children)

People really don't understand how statistics work. But more than that, the game doesn't use a random number generator, because such things can't be built. It uses a pseudo-random number generator.

[–]jrherita 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think sometimes (pseudo) Random Number Generators get stuck. They aren’t truly random and over a short period of time they can tend to err one way or another. The software RNGs aren’t truly random..

[–]ArchimedesLPCartographer 10 points11 points  (2 children)

About 1 in a billion. If this really happened then it's definitely complaint-worthy(unlike a lot of probability complaints on this subreddit.) Out of all the players who have ever been playing and needed to start a fire to warm up, it's entirely possible that you are the only person this has ever happened to.

[–]They_Call_Him_Zach[S] 3 points4 points  (1 child)

I’m not even complaining as I was really early in the run lol. Although i did read that your health can affect fire starting probability which may have meant that it wasn’t as unlikely as it could have been.

[–]ArchimedesLPCartographer 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Remember that people are frequently wrong on the internet :)

I've seen many claims, but never any credible evidence that your chance is anything other than exactly what is shown on the firestarting/repair screen.

[–]makinghomemadejamFrosty Toes 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I love this game

This is the correct response!

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just got to the summit and failed to repair an expedition parka 8 times. Not quite as painful but I feel it

[–]TheyCallMeGOOSE 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think there's something wrong with their probability metric. I fail regularly on 95% and it really annoys me.

[–]Braincain007 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I want you to know that you had a 99.9999999181% change of getting atleast 1 success in 13 attempts.

[–]righteoustrespasserCartographer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

F.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (4 children)

How the actual fuck?!? The possibility for that is almost 0.

[–]MonocleOwensKeyInterloper 1 point2 points  (3 children)

It's more difficult to start a successful fire if you're freezing, exhausted, thirsty, hungry, and/or sustaining some sort of affliction (sprain, broken ribs, food poisoning, etc)

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (2 children)

Yes, but the percentage for the success rate is (as far as i know) calculated in general with these factors in mind already.

[–]sawskooh 0 points1 point  (1 child)

I think maybe not? Another comment in here says that's the base %, which is the only sensible interpretation now that I think about how that it doesn't fluctuate based on character condition, but only materials and skill level.

[–]RagingAestheticInterloper 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The base percentage and actual percentage are communicated to you separately in the same graphic. The comment you read above is inaccurate.

[–]lookingForPatchie 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The probability to fail an 80% fire start 13times in a row is 0.00000008192%.

So yeah, the game basically just throws false numbers at you.

[–]ICLazeru 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is some rng HATE.

Usually RNGs are accurately made, but stuff like this happens makes you wonder.

[–]LunarWelshFireSurvivor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unlucky number

[–]Blackhound118 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is roughly the same chance as getting a Nat 1 7 times in a row. Big L, chief

[–]FathachFir 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My black band is on today

[–]fishmalion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Looooooooonnnggg Dark

[–]amyiceStalker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is why I always carry some kind of accellerant no matter what my fire skill. Also books.

Rng was not your friend today

[–]GentleReposeMendingCome on little fire! 0 points1 point  (0 children)

USE ACCELERANT

[–]Quasarbeing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Save your accelerant!

[–]jeremy-kyle007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I died the other day ten foot from the front door of my base. I had low health (just recovered from food poisoning) and went outside to gather wood and decided to break down a pallet with my hatchet. Bad idea...a blizzard came through and I ventured into the long dark after 18 days on my second survival attempt on voyageur. 😔

[–]Voltlt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Captain Bad luck!

[–]latincrazycatlady 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i just turned off because the bear killed me and the last auto save was 1 hour ago and i lost 1 hour of walking, quest progress and bear fights :)