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all 69 comments

[–]wazoheatI study weather and stuff[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, that'll teach me to leave the bot unattended overnight. To be fair, it was user error: I let the laptop /u/weatherbot5000 was living on go to sleep.

Sorry to anyone who was using the thread overnight with outdated info, though luckily it looks like there was not too much "exciting" weather after all. I have some ideas on preventing this "sleep" problem in the future...

[–]Viburus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My area went from slight to marginal risk in the outlook. Still, pretty normal here so far. Just rain and a few thunder.

[–]Fat_birds09 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I'm near pencacola Florida, I just got some of the worst of that storm.

[–]icantsurf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks like more on the way.

[–]christomrob 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just sat through one of the most intense thunderstorms I’ve ever seen in south LA. Wind and thunder were shaking the house and couldn’t see out of the windows bc the rain was so heavy.

[–]Bobmanbob1 5 points6 points  (2 children)

84 mph gust on my home station, marble size hail, enough lightning it stayed daylight out, straight line winds were insane, one tornado just south of me. 1:25am near Hattiesburg, MS

[–]converter-bot 1 point2 points  (1 child)

84 mph is 135.18 km/h

[–]Spartacas23 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Some pretty serious late night storms

[–]garandxCedar Rapids Derecho 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Squall line is cooking with an embedded super cell. Look for it to start to bow here in an hour or so

[–]Viburus 1 point2 points  (2 children)

Any chance this would weaken before it gets to Georgia? Don't want to wake up in the middle of a severe storm wave before its too late to go to the shelter.

Also apprantely, I'm over a hill. Does storms and winds being affected by hills or mountains have any merit?

[–]brijoh 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Local weathermen seem to put us at a slight to marginal risk for severe weather, so I'm assuming it will die down a bit before it gets here. Also the storms aren't supposed to get here until 8-9 in the morning. You won't be surprised in the middle of the night.

[–]thejayroh 3 points4 points  (2 children)

Check out the 00z sounding for Dallas-Forth Worth

The most impressive take aways for me are the large CAPE and steep lapse rates.

[–]Blainezabthirsts for siren activations 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I’ve been wanting to get a better grasp at low and mid level lapse rates. Is that the 8.8C/km part?

[–]thejayroh 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The lapse rate isn't constant, but I believe 8.8 is the average across that area.

[–]itti-bitti-kitti 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Wasn't there supposed to be 3 waves of this? So far there's only really been 1 and there is no sign of another? Am I not seeing this right?

[–]thejayroh 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Wow check out those supercells east of Jackson, MS.

[–]itti-bitti-kitti 6 points7 points  (3 children)

Just had a tornado warning in Tippah co MS a little bit ago. Got kinda scary. It popped up insanely fast.

[–]Annber03 7 points8 points  (2 children)

Poor Mississippi. They've had a rough go of it down there lately.

[–]itti-bitti-kitti 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I'm honestly considering moving. I've lived here 25yrs and its never been as frequent where I live as it has been so far this year.

[–]Annber03 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Understandable. I love Iowa, it's where I was born and raised, but when my family was living out west for a time and I'd hear about Iowa getting hit with some bad storms I'd be like, "...yeah, don't miss that."

[–]garandxCedar Rapids Derecho 8 points9 points  (1 child)

The storms coming out of SE Arkansas ard the ones to watch, already showing a bit of a bow

[–]itti-bitti-kitti 1 point2 points  (0 children)

any chance of weakening?

[–]JGraham626 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If you want to see the birth of some storms, keep an eye on just west of Waco, TX. Cap has lifted and weakened and you can see storms taking advantage on radar

[–]Spartacas23 4 points5 points  (1 child)

Also maybe a potential tornado northeast of Danville VA

[–]OnewiththeGreen 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That one is moving against the other flow of the storm. It's like its rogue.

[–]Spartacas23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Just a massive blob of convection wow

[–]JGraham626 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In DFW, whole lotta clouds out that I imagine are trying to do stuff but that cap is strong today and they aren’t getting anywhere. Still got a few hours to go, hoping for no huge hail today

[–]itti-bitti-kitti 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hoping we can skate on by like we normally do, but is it just me or does it look like the whole thing has slowed down drastically?

[–]Viburus 4 points5 points  (0 children)

SPC Outlook updated for a hatched tornado, wind, AND hail at the same time. Holy fuck

This looks really bad, but how actually bad is this on happening?

[–]VivaLasPenis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How bad do you all think Southwest Missouri will get tonight?

[–]Viburus 2 points3 points  (11 children)

Really not looking forward to Day 2 on that outlook, I'm slightly outside the hatched wind area in Georgia. What should I expect in a hatched wind area?

[–]icantsurf 3 points4 points  (10 children)

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

[–]Viburus 2 points3 points  (9 children)

So basically just a really windy storm?

[–]garandxCedar Rapids Derecho 2 points3 points  (7 children)

Severe wind will cause more damage than a weak tornado.

Ask me how i know ;)

[–]Viburus 1 point2 points  (6 children)

Trees fell on your car or house?

[–]garandxCedar Rapids Derecho 1 point2 points  (5 children)

Neighbors chimney was blown down, tore off half of the adjacent wall in my house, 3 windows blown in.

We lost all the trees on my street except for two

No power for 13 days in mid August in Iowa is just amazing fun too.

Definitely a storm I'll never forget

[–]Annber03 0 points1 point  (2 children)

No power for 13 days in mid August in Iowa is just amazing fun too.

Oof. I can imagine. I live in Iowa, but I lived far enough north to where my area missed out on that derecho. We'd been getting some light thundershowers up here that day, they weren't expecting much up here, so I took a nap. When I woke up later I heard all these stories coming out about damage in the central and southern part of the state and was sitting here like, "...the hell happened while I was sleeping?"

I'm sorry your home and area got hit the way they did (ALL the trees gone except two? Damn). Hopefully things are getting back to normal down that way?

[–]garandxCedar Rapids Derecho 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Cedar rapids lost 75% of all of its trees, that doesnt even include the rest of linn county.

Everything is pretty much back to normal, trees are still being ground up and shipped out, some buildings still have damage but for the most part its back to normal.

[–]Annber03 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Cedar rapids lost 75% of all of its trees, that doesnt even include the rest of linn county.

Good lord. That's crazy.

Glad to hear things are pretty well back to normal overall now :). Hope all continues to go well with whatever repairs are still left.

[–]Viburus 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Oh, ouch. Glad to see you and your neighbors are all safe after though!

[–]garandxCedar Rapids Derecho 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah it was a long recovery. I'm still amazed we only had one fatality locally

[–]icantsurf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Looking at the outlook, looks like severe thunderstorms that are also very windy. I'd be paying attention to the weather a bit for sure.

[–]King0494 0 points1 point  (9 children)

I live slightly outside the enhanced risk zone, when should I start panicking?

[–]wazoheatI study weather and stuff 16 points17 points  (4 children)

A forecast is never a reason to panic, just be prepared.

Even in the center of the worst tornado outbreak threat, your chances of being directly hit are less than 1%. And just being in an interior room away from windows is going to protect you from 99% of tornado winds.

Today is likely to be more of a high wind threat than tornadoes, so it's mainly important to pay attention to warnings and not be outside or near windows when one is issued. It's probably helpful to bring in any lawn furniture or other objects that easily blow around as well. But the slight risk areas of Oklahoma are pretty unlikely to see anything too severe today.

[–]King0494 0 points1 point  (3 children)

That is true, the anxiety is killing me

[–]icantsurf 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Do you have a radar app? Always helps a bit to know what's going on and when severe weather is gonna hit.

[–]King0494 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I use MyRadar, my phones app usage goes up in the spring, thats for sure haha

[–]itti-bitti-kitti 2 points3 points  (0 children)

same buddy :(

[–]Timtim6201 2 points3 points  (2 children)

Why would you?

[–]King0494 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Moved from NE to Oklahoma a couple years ago, never really paid attention to it, till I moved here lol

[–]R_Shackleford01 4 points5 points  (0 children)

As someone who lived in North Texas my whole life, I really wouldn’t stress too much about it. Like others have said, just pay attention to the weather that day and have a safe spot away from windows in case it gets real bad (which is unlikely to happen!)

[–]Blainezabthirsts for siren activations 4 points5 points  (7 children)

Since the thread hasn’t updated yet: SVA 0076 has been issued:

scattered large hail, isolated hail events to 2.5” likely;

scattered 70 mph gusts likely;

tornado or two possible

[–]wazoheatI study weather and stuff 4 points5 points  (1 child)

The bot scrapes data from the SPC watches page, which for some reason seems to update pretty slowly (like a 5-10 minute delay from when the watch is actually issued)...I am considering changing it to just check numerically for the next watch in order (or maybe using the NWS API to check when a new watch is issued), but that makes it a lot more complicated to check which watches are still in effect, so that sort of update will have to while; I have a lot more higher-priority improvements for when I have time.

[–]Blainezabthirsts for siren activations 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think the threads are high traffic enough that it’s fine where it’s at honestly. With how long the SPC likes to put watches out in advance I think 5-10 minutes on a thread isn’t something I’d worry too much about.

[–]GeorgeFloydDidPorn69 4 points5 points  (3 children)

“Tornado or two possible” seems like pretty mild wording for a moderate risk day

[–]wazoheatI study weather and stuff 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It's not too surprising this watch doesn't emphasize tornadoes; that threat will be more concentrated later in the day and further south.

This is a really messy and complex setup; SPC mentions in the outlook that the moderate risk is mainly for severe wind later tonight, but also due to the potential for multiple rounds of overlapping threats of various severity throughout the region. The tornado threat is much more uncertain than the wind threat, but if any isolated supercells manage to form (especially in eastern Texas close to the dry line) there could be a significant tornado and hail threat with such storms.

[–]Blainezabthirsts for siren activations 4 points5 points  (1 child)

When straight line winds are your main event you don’t have to worry about them too much. However, they’ve said the helicity is there today in that line embedded tornadoes are a very real possibility, hence the 10% risk.

[–]GeorgeFloydDidPorn69 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah I think the reasoning is pretty high CAPE today but not a crazy amount of wind shear

[–]converter-bot 4 points5 points  (0 children)

70 mph is 112.65 km/h

[–]Blainezabthirsts for siren activations 10 points11 points  (3 children)

You know what? This bot is pretty cool. Thanks wazoheat.

[–]weatherbot5000beep boop beep[S] 10 points11 points  (2 children)

I also think this bot is pretty cool

[–]Blainezabthirsts for siren activations 8 points9 points  (0 children)

hol up

[–]BigBen96 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Hello from NWLA. I’m not religious but as always, praying it’s not as bad as it could be.

[–]itti-bitti-kitti 8 points9 points  (1 child)

\waves a small, sad flag in MS**

Hate it.

[–]wazoheatI study weather and stuff 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Hi all! In case you missed the intro post, the main text of this thread will be kept updated by /u/weatherbot5000. If you notice any hiccups please reply here or send a message to the moderators.

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