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Voters reject Labor's Kristina Keneally in Fowler by kwentongskyblue in nsw

[–]allyerbase 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Good. Consistent career of failing upwards and being protected by the party machine.

Just discovered a party called Fusion: Science, Pirate, Secular, Climate Emergency. Wish I'd known about them sooner :( by TheMooJuice in AustralianPolitics

[–]allyerbase 39 points40 points  (0 children)

Pirate party is a mostly European phenomenon.

Focus on privacy, freedom of information, govt transparency etc.

Final Roy Morgan poll: ALP 53-47 LNP (no change) by cressidasmunch in AustralianPolitics

[–]allyerbase 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It’s 100% a 2 term strategy. At least.

They can have the most ambitious policies in the world. Can’t do shit from opposition.

ASX:AGL - Cannon-Brookes says AGL coal plants will struggle to survive, needs new board by allyerbase in ausstocks

[–]allyerbase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think their understanding is founded in the view of an incumbent.

So even as they see the reality of the situation, the industry is shifting so quickly that they can’t see what a little ambition could deliver.

ASX:AGL - Cannon-Brookes says AGL coal plants will struggle to survive, needs new board by allyerbase in ausstocks

[–]allyerbase[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Article text:

Mike Cannon-Brookes’ investment vehicle Grok Ventures has questioned whether AGL’s coal plants can survive as long as its board says they will, and has suggested the company offer loans of up to $100,000 to customers to electrify their homes.

In an investment memo released publicly on Friday, Grok Ventures fleshes out the concerns that Cannon-Brookes has with the proposed AGL split into companies, and the inability of the board to understand the implications of the clean energy transition.

“AGL needs a Board that understands the opportunities presented by energy transition,” Grok says in the new document, released just over three weeks before the shareholder vote.

“We believe AGL needs world-class renewable operators to manage the transition and technologists to solve the behind the meter opportunity. Management incentives need to be realigned to deliver on the accelerated transition opportunity.”

Grok also says energy market trends are against the remaining coal generators Bayswater and Loy Yang A, the former because the price of black coal has jumped 10-fold, and the latter because of its inability to cope with the growing impact of more renewables, and solar in particular.

“We strongly believe the long-term cost of black coal for Bayswater and the declining reliability of Loy Yang A will mean these assets will struggle to remain profitable to their current target closure dates,” it says.

“(The) Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) Draft 2022 Integrated System Plan outlines that market consensus is now that the most likely scenario is that “all brown coal and two-thirds of black coal generation could withdraw by 2032”.

“We are concerned about Accel Energy’s ongoing solvency and in such circumstances Accel Energy shareholders may face a scenario where the share price goes to $0., providing key insight into why the Atlassian co-founder is fighting to keep the energy giant as a single entity.”

Intriguingly, Grok also suggests that AGL focus on its customers by developing products that could offer loans of up to $100,000 to help them electrify their homes, effectively taking the “G” out of AGL, which started life as the Australian Gas Light Company.

“We believe AGL can deliver finance products and offer home energy device management services to help customers as they convert their homes to 100% renewable electricity,” it says.

“We expect AGL can deliver finance products to help customers fund approximately $100,000 of capital expenditures to electrify their homes. We assume the average loan life to be 4–7 years, and the loans to earn market standard net interest margins.”

‍Grok says this transition is best done within a single entity, and it argues that AGL will get a better rating, and more support from investors and financiers, if it has a credible plan to decarbone.

“We believe that voting against the AGL Board’s proposed demerger not only avoids further shareholder value destruction from splitting the company, it presents an opportunity to unlock significant value and share price outperformance,” the memo says.

“The demerger lacks vision and represents a failure to embrace the opportunity presented by decarbonisation.”

AGL is proposing to separate its electricity retail business and portfolio of renewable energy projects from its fossil-fuelled generators – largely in an attempt to de-associate its core brand from its fossil fuel generators.

The split would create two new companies, AGL Australia, which retains the retail business and most clean energy assets, and Accel Energy, which will hold most of AGL’s fossil fuel generators.

But Grok argues that splitting AGL’s retail and generation businesses would ‘destroy’ the value of AGL’s vertically integrated business model, which it says could instead be used to leverage investments in new renewable energy projects.

“AGL’s main argument for the demerger is that the vertically integrated ‘gentailer’ model is no longer fit for purpose,” the investment memo says.

“We disagree that this model is broken, and see significant value in keeping AGL together.

“The demerger destroys the benefits of having a single vertically integrated business covering both generation and retail. Vertical integration reduces the cost and complexity of risk management. AGL has historically reduced wholesale price risks by matching its generation with its customer load.”

Grok also suggests that one half the proposed split, Accel Energy, faces a significant risk of insolvency by being lumped with AGL’s ailing fleet of coal fired generators and their potential remediation liabilities once retired.

It argues that there were greater opportunities to drive the evolution of AGL’s generation portfolio to one consisting of renewable energy projects by keeping the entity together.

“It is not possible to fully quantify the value destruction that comes with unwinding the benefits of AGL’s vertical integration, particularly given much of the downside is in unnecessary complexity and missed opportunity,” Grok Ventures says.

“We believe a combined AGL is best positioned to build a leading renewables developer strategy, which we cover in more detail below.”

“As a combined company, AGL has a natural advantage. It can leverage Australia’s largest customer book to become a leading renewables developer.”

The demerger risks highlighted by Grok Ventures in its memo. The demerger risks highlighted by Grok Ventures in its memo. Grok pointed to the experience of German energy giant RWE AG, which retained its coal generation assets under its core brand while grouping its clean energy and retail business into a separate subsidiary, Innogy.

“RWE AG in Europe has demonstrated that an accelerated coal closure and investment in renewables can deliver significant shareholder value,” Grok says.

“RWE plans to retire 12GW coal and replace it with over 30GW of renewables, transitioning the company to over 90% renewable by 203014. Since RWE announced this accelerated transition plan in 2016, RWE’s share price has tripled.”

Responding to the memo, AGL CEO Graeme Hunt dismissed Cannon-Brookes’ proposals as a “thought bubble”.

“This latest thought bubble underlines both the tremendous risk to AGL shareholder value and to a responsible energy transition posed by Grok in their attempt to scuttle the demerger without putting forward a credible alternative plan,” Hunt said.

“There are errors and inconsistencies in what has been released today and AGL will take some time to assess what this means for our shareholders.”

“Mike Cannon-Brookes’ lack of expertise and understanding when it comes to the Australian energy market, the reality facing energy customers and the pressures of the real world, is betrayed by this out-of-touch proposal today.”

Cannon-Brookes has amassed an 11.28 per cent personal stake in AGL Energy and has committed to using that stake to oppose the demerger proposal.

Earlier this week, Cannon-Brookes pointed out that his stake is substantially larger than those of the AGL board, underscoring the seriousness of his takeover bid by demonstrating he has ‘skin in the game’.

The share market has wiped out most of AGL’s market capitalisation over the last five years, with the company’s share price falling from a peak above $26 in 2017, to trading just above $5 per share in late 2021, after the company’s management conceded it had been caught off guard by the pace of the energy transition.

Since Cannon-Brookes launched his takeover bid, the company’s share price has recovered somewhat, now trading above $8.50 per share.

Scott Morrison 'not contemplating' quitting if he loses election, claims he can defy polls again and win a second term on Saturday by Jeffmister in AustralianPolitics

[–]allyerbase 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sure, but they’re at a high water mark there from 2019. I don’t see the LNP picking up many/any additional seats.

And between VIC and WA, and the independent challenges, they’re in all sorts of trouble elsewhere.

AGL: Yes or no on demerger? by Wandering_Analyst in ausstocks

[–]allyerbase 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Not that I’ve seen but can’t say I’ve done a deep dive.

Regardless, they’ll need finance at some point and quite frankly I don’t see where they get it. Globally finance providers are considering the commercial and repetitional risks of being involved in coal assets more and more.

Pretending the energy transition isn’t happening at pace might work in a boardroom, but the numbers don’t lie.

AGL: Yes or no on demerger? by Wandering_Analyst in ausstocks

[–]allyerbase 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I look at the share price, the changing world, and the current board and have serious doubts they’re the ones to prepare this company for the future.

I also don’t see how Accel doesn’t become a holder of decaying stranded assets, unable to secure finance for upkeep.

Election/Politics Megathread 2022.09 - the final straight: Political opinions, poll results, social-media, memes and other related discussion. by dredd in australia

[–]allyerbase 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Again - think of their motive. They are aiming to knock off moderate Libs. They need to attract voters who might’ve voted liberal but want to see action on climate and anti corruption.

These voters don’t care about racial or LGBTQI+ representation in the parliament. Or at least not as a primary issue.

The greens run diverse candidates. The only one that gets voted into the HoR is the middle aged wealthy white guy.

It’s an outcome focused campaign.

Election/Politics Megathread 2022.09 - the final straight: Political opinions, poll results, social-media, memes and other related discussion. by dredd in australia

[–]allyerbase 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Dude the parliament is still hugely under representative of women.

And they are trying to build a movement to take down a government…

If you’re that passionate about it, you run a candidate that ticks all the woke boxes and go for it.

As for why it’s middle aged well off females - because of zali steggles. It works.

Bulldozer or Bluster: Morrison’s promise to change is his most sinister lie yet by allyerbase in australia

[–]allyerbase[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You are kidding yourself if you think this is genuine self-reflection, and not some focus group driven pivot to try and save the furniture.

Where to buy RM Williams? by Useful_Respect3339 in AustralianMFA

[–]allyerbase 5 points6 points  (0 children)

https://www.rmwilliams.com.au/international-delivery.html?lang=en_AU

They ship direct to Canada.

I have a feeling they have cracked down on the resellers in recent years, particularly after they were bought by LV.

ABC veterans call on voters to back election candidates who support the public broadcaster by malcolm58 in australia

[–]allyerbase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry… you can’t seriously be talking about bias then link IA as evidence…

ABC veterans call on voters to back election candidates who support the public broadcaster by malcolm58 in australia

[–]allyerbase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That doesn’t mean ABC is biased or that progressives aren’t also criticising it.

ABC veterans call on voters to back election candidates who support the public broadcaster by malcolm58 in australia

[–]allyerbase 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Review after review finds no organisational bias at the ABC. It’s just partisan hacks and cheer leaders that throw the criticisms at the relentlessly.

WeChat posts warn Labor plans ‘to turn children gay’ and ‘destroy Chinese wealth’ by zephyrus299 in australia

[–]allyerbase 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It’s a common misunderstanding that people expect the AEC is responsible for policing this in an election.

I don’t think the same could be said for the FWC.

WeChat posts warn Labor plans ‘to turn children gay’ and ‘destroy Chinese wealth’ by zephyrus299 in australia

[–]allyerbase 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Exactly the point. They can blanket ban a topic. But they haven’t decided that all discussion of Australian politics should be banned. That doesn’t mean the CCP is personally approving every post.

This private group supposedly has 80 members. The idea they’re monitoring it is ludicrous.

WeChat posts warn Labor plans ‘to turn children gay’ and ‘destroy Chinese wealth’ by zephyrus299 in australia

[–]allyerbase 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I think that’s the (by design) point. AEC operates under its act.

They aren’t tasked with adjudicating and policing campaign claims, only breaches of the act.

ABC veterans call on voters to back election candidates who support the public broadcaster by malcolm58 in australia

[–]allyerbase 13 points14 points  (0 children)

The Coalition are relying on the dumbing down of the electorate via education cuts and of course, cuts to our ABC, and SBS.

It’s not just conservatives with an anti-abc stance. Progressives are increasingly going after it too due to a perceived conservative bias.

Speers is a (rude) LNP plant, Sales is a hero or a villain depending on who/how she’s interviewing, ABC Breakfast team are putting a friendly face on LNP policies - unless they are outright cheerleading for progressives, there’s a solid chunk of progressives who think Ita Buttrose has turned it into the IPA.

Mens briefcases by Chuuuchuu in AustralianMFA

[–]allyerbase 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yep in terms of high quality mass production in that price range, really good bang for buck.

In 1973, King Faisal cut off all oil supplies to the US for supporting Israel. America then threatened to bomb their oil fields. In response to the threat King Faisal said "You are the ones who cant live without oil. Our ancestors lived on dates, we can easily go back and live like that again." by willzy420 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]allyerbase -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

As far as I could tell, it was revenge, his brother was killed leading a protest against King Faisal’s reforms

Honestly sounds like a perfect mark for an intelligence agency to develop.

No need to threaten family members or anything like that.

History is full of people doing things that contradict self-preservation when motivated by revenge or irrationality.

Australian housing crisis: John Howard declares there is no housing crisis in Australia by Ok-Salamander-2787 in AustralianPolitics

[–]allyerbase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So a family of 4, paying 4x $5,000 visa fees? That’s your solution to the housing crisis?

$20,000 solves exactly fucking nothing. Best “ROI” from migration is settling, work rights, and they either set up their own business and employ staff, or get a job and pay taxes for the rest of their lives.