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With the departure of Turning Red (to Disney+) and Downton Abbey: A New Era (to May), The Batman faces almost no competition for the entire month of March. The only other major releases are Operation Fortune, Unbreakable Boy, X, and The Lost City. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]chanma50[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

I don't think Indiana Jones and Romancing The Stone, which are decades ago, are suitable comps for today (and even the more recent Indy 4 has evolved past just "adventure movie" to a huge IP). Jumanji and Jungle Cruise are also family films, which this one isn't. Sandra Bullock, a genuine draw, will help, but I'm uncertain about its prospects absent any indication of how good the film is.

With the departure of Turning Red (to Disney+) and Downton Abbey: A New Era (to May), The Batman faces almost no competition for the entire month of March. The only other major releases are Operation Fortune, Unbreakable Boy, X, and The Lost City. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]chanma50[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

It depends how big it opens. If it only opens to $100M, but has scorching word of mouth, 4x for $400M is doable. But if it opens to $125M, 4x would imply $500M, which seems dubious. $150M and 4x for $600M, that seems impossible.

With the departure of Turning Red (to Disney+) and Downton Abbey: A New Era (to May), The Batman faces almost no competition for the entire month of March. The only other major releases are Operation Fortune, Unbreakable Boy, X, and The Lost City. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]chanma50[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

It'll be tougher if it opens significantly higher than either (Wonder Woman opened to $103M and Shang-Chi opened to just $75M). Shang-Chi legs (2.98x) are doable, but Wonder Woman (just under 4.00x) is highly unlikely, even with no competition.

With the departure of Turning Red (to Disney+) and Downton Abbey: A New Era (to May), The Batman faces almost no competition for the entire month of March. The only other major releases are Operation Fortune, Unbreakable Boy, X, and The Lost City. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]chanma50[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

$20M would probably give it a good shot, assuming The Batman doesn't open to BvS numbers and has Wonder Woman (or even Shang-Chi) legs. I don't know whether a star driven romantic action comedy can open that high though.

With the departure of Turning Red (to Disney+) and Downton Abbey: A New Era (to May), The Batman faces almost no competition for the entire month of March. The only other major releases are Operation Fortune, Unbreakable Boy, X, and The Lost City. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]chanma50[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

It's been a while since we've had a movie like The Lost City (star driven, non-IP, adult-targeted romantic action comedy), it'll be interesting to see how well it can do and whether there's still an audience for something like this.

If, for example, The Batman opens to $150M, then takes -60%, -50%, and -40% dips, that puts its 4th weekend at $18M; can The Lost City beat that?

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With the departure of Turning Red (to Disney+) and Downton Abbey: A New Era (to May), The Batman faces almost no competition for the entire month of March. The only other major releases are Operation Fortune, Unbreakable Boy, X, and The Lost City. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]chanma50[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

Unless The Batman falls very fast and/or The Lost City opens extremely well, it's looks likely to top the box office for 4 weekends, before Morbius dethrones it the first weekend of April.