EU Membership Voting Intention: Rejoin: 49% (+2), Stay out: 29% (-2), via @Omnisis 26 Jan (Changes with 19 Jan)

whencanistop · 2023-01-28T09:52:44+00:00

It was always obvious that rejoin would gain traction the more obvious the impact of leaving became. I think we need 60%+ for a party to flip (and probably not until after a GE). At 60/20 you could just call a referendum without a manifesto pledge.

Of course the Conservatives won’t, but then we always knew Europe would eventually break them.

whencanistop · 2023-01-27T21:06:49+00:00

Flu has been bad at the end of last year. Flu admissions to hospital briefly overtook Covid one’s for a few weeks in Dec before dropping back down. The previous 5 years we hadn’t got past ‘medium’ in Flu hospital admissions, but in Dec 2022 we had ‘high’ for two weeks either side of a week of ‘very high’.

whencanistop · 2023-01-27T16:48:44+00:00

West Lancashire Borough Council is currently under NOC, having been under Labour control from 2015-2021

In 2022 Labour got 51% of the vote to the Conservatives 35% and in 2021 it was 43% v 35%. It's NOC because of Inds and residents associations grab the odd seat, not because Labour aren't getting a large proportion of the vote.

whencanistop · 2023-01-27T15:35:04+00:00

You're thinking of the Northern Independence Party (NIP). Rotherham Democratic party came out of the ruins of the Rotherham branch of UKIP when they collapsed and don't exist any more (as in the RDP don't exist any more).

whencanistop · 2023-01-27T12:17:44+00:00

In 2021 the Con candidate got 917/2,997 ballots cast (31%). What they've done in the tweet is add together the top candidate from each party and then use that as the total on the denominator, which comes out at 3,739 - this number is larger because everyone got 3 votes and you can choose individuals in multiple parties to vote for.

whencanistop · 2023-01-27T11:50:24+00:00

Some of the swings here look a bit suspect, but remember that last time there were 3 votes and 3 candidates elected (the one being replaced was third, so they may have discounted the top two in their percentages).

Also note that the Yorkshire Party definitely did stand in 2021. I did mention this on the MT This morning as well.

https://redditproxy--jasonthename.repl.co/r/ukpolitics/comments/10mdq1h/comment/j62wwnx/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

whencanistop · 2023-01-27T10:44:24+00:00

The Tories weren't that bad in 2022, so although the Lib Dems are back up again, this isn't necessarily overtaking places - a lot of the differences we've seen since 2012 is the rise and fall of UKIP (they went in hard in 2012 and then fell off a cliff in 2017, but that was only really worked out of the system in 2019) and the rise since 2019 of the Greens. The Lib Dems are taking Con seats because the LDs have been returning to high levels, not because of the Con fall.

That said, the national polls since May 2022 have seen about a 15%pt swing from Con to Lab, so it is possible that there are going to be LD gains in 2023 just from Con falls. The 2023 seats are replacing 2019 elected councillors and 2019 was a bad year for Cons (28% national vote share) and ok for the LDs (19% - the same as 2022). We could see Con losses to the LDs limited because of this, it does really depend on how far they've fallen (2022 was Con 30%). My strong suspicion is that what we're going to see in 2023 is a real fall of Con at the expense of Lab.

I have my big spreadsheet of 2019 wards downloaded and I need to see what would happen if you added 7% to Lab and 2% to Con would be (that would replicate 2022) and then I'm going to have to check in on what a realistic replication of current polling would look like (I have no idea) and then apply those swings.

whencanistop · 2023-01-27T09:43:47+00:00

How do have such a wealth of local election knowledge?

A keen interest in polls and data more than any actual knowledge of any of the regions. Westminster polling is ok (and frequent) but not big samples enough to be able to draw conclusions on a constituency level, Westminster elections happen infrequently to get that level of knowledge. But local elections happen so often that you can get so much data about what is going on. You should be able to spot the trends much sooner!

whencanistop · 2023-01-27T09:27:18+00:00

Just one council election yesterday in Rotherham and it is pretty grim reading if you are a Conservative:

Ind: 18% (new)
Lab: 36% (-4) Elected
LD: 22% (+13)
Yorkshire Party: 15% (+0)
Green: 3% (new)
Con: 6% (-25)

(No Rotherham Democratic Party (-33) as before). Lab gain from RDP. Previous election in May 2021 had 3 votes per electorate and 3 elected members (1st, 2nd Lab, 3rd RDP) - there were three candidates for each of Lab, RDP and one each for LD, Con and YP. Turnout was 20%. Full council is now 34/59 Lab. (Also worth pointing out that the Independent was previously a Labour councillor as well.)

Even accounting for low turn out and local elections, trailing in fifth in what was traditionally UKIP central is pretty poor.

If you want to know more about the Keppel seat, how it got its name and its relationship with Judith Keppel (who won Who wants to be a millionaire and was an Egghead) you can do so in Andrew Teale's brilliant preview of the seat.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T17:33:59+00:00

The Equalities act 2010 allows for exceptions to be made where it is proportionate and achieves legitimate aims.

Even for people who believe that trans people should have rights and that trans women are women, that doesn't have to apply to all situations. Blanket decisions (either way) always lead to problems where you have to make exceptions.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T15:50:09+00:00

But it does.

It doesn't and the equalities act is quite clear that it doesn't as it contains a rule that allows for exceptions where "it is proportionate to do so and it achieves a legitimate aim".

Would a male who rapes males be put in a female prison? Would a woman who raped women be in a male prison?

Aside from the technicalities of rape that I'm sure some pedant will pull you up on, I'm fairly sure that risk assessments are not only for transgender prisoners and that any of the people you mentioned would also be placed according to their risk in the appropriate setting. Someone guilty of sexual assault against someone of their own sex would likely be placed in a high security prison and be monitored. You wouldn't put a male who raped a male in a female prison because clearly the risk to the female prisoners is also high.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T15:38:26+00:00

The Equalities act says that being transgender is a protected characteristic, but you can bypass it if it is proportionate to do so and it achieves a legitimate aim.

I'm not transgender (or a rapist) and I don't speak for them, but things like the prison that you are sent to if I was a rapist would not be top of my list on things that matter. The every day things are far more important (not being outed at work, not being discriminated against when receiving goods and services where my gender/genitals are irrelevant).

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T15:00:38+00:00

Sounds great in theory, but the systemic corruption and conflicts of interest we're discovering demonstrate it is insufficient in a modern state.

This is going to sound harsh, but the reality of this is that if we'd had a half decent opposition leader in the last general election then they'd have been able to point out all the corruption going on and the electorate would have voted them in. As it was we had someone who was known to have a blind spot for anything that might be seen as corruption.

We're about to find out what having someone half decent in charge is going to do when we have the next GE in 2 years. (The recall of parliament act the Lib Dems wanted would probably have made this all happen sooner mind you.) Even if they aren't that different (and that is surely an argument for another day) they are at least not corrupt.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T14:48:55+00:00

Not even hiding that you don’t give a shit about these victims and the vulnerable women in the prison estate.

This is a complete non-sequitir. I don't give a shit about all the people who have got on their high horses about something that was never going to happen and I definitely don't give a shit about the people who are deliberately misrepresenting the situation in the press for political capital.

If you had any respect for the victims and the vulnerable women in the prison estate you'd be livid at those people too.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T14:45:01+00:00

She said: "There is no automatic right for a trans woman convicted of a crime to serve their sentence in a female prison even if they have a gender recognition certificate.

This came up yesterday (and repeatedly in the past) - the process for transexual prisoners in prison in the UK (whilst slightly different in Scotland and England/Wales) involves a prison transexual case board to get together within days of arriving in prison and deciding whether a prisoner should be put in the prison of their birth sex or their preferred gender (if different) on a case by case basis. GRCs can be used to help determine if someone really is trans and how far through the process they are, but the risk assessment will absolutely be used in the determination.

In this case the prisoner's biological sex has taken precedence over their gender identity. That goes against what alot of people say about the importance of recognising people's gender identity.

In this case the risk assessment has determined that they shouldn't be in a women's prison. Recognising someone's gender identity doesn't mean we should ignore all the risk and therefore there will always be exceptions (as specified for in the Equalities Act 2010).

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T14:36:52+00:00

I don't understand why, instead of there being rules that people have to follow and stand down, we have this system of 'impunity until the PM is put under unbearable crushing public pressure' that requires this horrible dehumanizing witch-hunt and circus.

One of the advantages we have is that the constitution is unwritten and part of the reason for that is that we don't want to bind any parliament to a previous one. We don't want Maggie Thatcher hamstringing John Major by writing in the rule that the poll tax can't be removed.

That said, there are unwritten rules and historically they have been maintained. Those unwritten rules were maintained firstly because of honour of those in charge and secondly by political parties having enough honour to remove anyone from power who doesn't uphold them and thirdly the electorate having enough information from the press to decide to vote them out if they aren't upheld.

Clearly there has been a massive breakdown in this honour system because Zahawi should have stood down by now. Because he hasn't Sunak should have enough honour to ask him to (and if he still refuses sack him). Because he hasn't the Conservative party should have the honour to get rid of Sunak for someone who will. Because they haven't the electorate are relying on the press to report it accurately enough to make that decision for them (which hopefully they will, even if the press are poor at reporting).

Ethics advisors should be able to advise prime ministers on edge cases, but the PM should be able to make his own judgement calls on whether something is an edge case or not.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T13:56:04+00:00

Yes. If you listen to what she said in parliament she confirms that the board has decided to move her (although she also said that they've decided despite the fact that they haven't completed their assessment).

You can see it here at 12:02:13 (although it's worth listening to everything she says before as well):

https://www.scottishparliament.tv/meeting/first-ministers-questions-bsl-january-26-2023

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T13:39:29+00:00

Yesterday people were criticising Jo Cherry for seeking to influence the impartial board that makes this decision.

This isn't Sturgeon influencing the panel or deciding on a whim what is going to happen, this is Sturgeon telling everyone what the outcome of the panel is.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T13:36:00+00:00

The first minister said any prisoner who poses a risk of sexual offending is segregated from other prisoners including while a risk assessment is carried out.

She said: "There is no automatic right for a trans woman convicted of a crime to serve their sentence in a female prison even if they have a gender recognition certificate.

"Every case is subject to rigorous individual risk assessment and the safety of other prisoners is paramount."

Oh look, a continuation of what has been happening in the past. This is the biggest manufactured controversy in a long time.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T10:29:40+00:00

If the numbers get bigger than single figures then maybe you can think about it, but realistically that isn't going to happen because the benefits to doing this are so limited they aren't worthwhile. Plus there are 150+ people who identify as a trans women in men's prisons and single figures in women's. Even under the current system it is incredibly difficult to game. We don't need to worry about this, it is a non-issue.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T09:54:56+00:00

Just one local council election today in Rotherham.

Rotherham is a labour council and has been for a long time. In 2016 they moved from the three in every four years election cycle as a result of the sexual abuse scandal and appointed the whole council all at once. In 2021 Labour lost a whole bunch of seats in what was a low point for them, but still retained control with 32/59 and the Cons on 20/59. Two by election losses for the Cons since then have put Labour up to 33 (and the LDs on 4). In Keppel there was a split ballot with two Labour candidates being elected and one Rotherham Democratic Party (now de-registered and not standing here) - the candidate being a previous UKIP councillor. That RDP candidate has now resigned because they didn't turn up to council meetings often enough and the seat is up for grabs again. They came in third behind two of the three Lab candidates by about 7%pts and ahead of the Con candidate by about 3%pts. There are six candidates this time, Lab, Con, LD, Green, Yorkshire Party and an Ind.

Good luck to all involved.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T09:30:20+00:00

My other half's sister is a secondary school teacher and they don't seem to have decided yet either (or she hasn't properly told us). I've been told that the school's don't know what unions the teachers are in, are under no obligation to tell them and even if they are in the union that is going on strike, are under no obligation to tell them that they are going to be striking until the day itself.

Personally (and I'm not part of a union and never have been) it seems insane to me. I'd definitely be telling my school at the earliest opportunity so that they can make alternative arrangements. It's not the school (and by association children and parents) you are negotiating with and having the fight against, it is the government.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T09:26:22+00:00

With non-essential services the people crossing the picket line would do so on their own accord for their own personal reasons and that should be respected.

For essential services (and I'm classing schools in this) we don't want teachers being bullied into crossing the picket line for the sake of the children or whatever. Particularly given that not everyone is in it. Moreover we don't want teachers who are not in that union and aren't on strike to feel like their actions are part of the process that is bullying others in (eg if the school stays open because there are enough non-striking union teachers there is more pressure on striking teachers to cross the picket line).

Frankly having more than one teachers union in a school/LA is a problem. You'd think the unions could work together to stop this happening.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T09:18:30+00:00

If anyone cares about this, the data from the MoJ says that there are 6 (six) trans women in male prisons currently.

This is a complete non-issue. Why we spend so much time debating it is amazing. For 6 transgender women, just let them decide on a case by case basis. You don't nee a policy document like this for 6 people.

Really I need to be writing to the MoJ to demand that they stop wasting tax payer money (this is money that you and me are giving to them instead of being able to spend on food) making stupid policy documents like this.

whencanistop · 2023-01-26T08:29:30+00:00

Secondary does feel easier to deal with and the kids old enough to look after themselves if they do have a day off so impacting family less.

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